Carbon Dioxide May Calm the Climate, but it Cannot Cause Wild Weird Weather
Every day some place in the world has “wild weather”. And in recent times, human industry gets the blame. “It’s all caused by man-made global warming” (generally shortened to “global warming”, or GW by alarmists).
Floods or droughts – blame GW; bushfires or snowstorms – blame GW; frosts or heatwaves – blame GW; hail storms or dust storms – blame GW; cyclones or tornadoes – blame GW.
In fact, here is a complete list of all the things blamed on global warming:
If all of this were true, then carbon dioxide is surely the most powerful and disruptive gas on the planet. That great scientist, John Kerry, even calls it a “weapon of mass destruction”.
Thanks to cartoonist Steve Hunter who has gambled again that we may raise enough money to pay him.
But carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most stable, predictable, unreactive and puny of all climate
factors. And its effect diminishes for each addition of CO2 to the atmosphere. Adding more now has
almost zero effect on temperature.
More, as well as:
- Wandering Professor causes Global Cooling?
- How they cope with Global Warming in Kiwi Land
- As Climate Alarm Unravels, Things are Getting Nasty
- And Still the Money Rolls in
Read the full report: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/wild-weird-weather.pdf [PDF, 155KB]
Keywords: Wild weather, carbon dioxide, weapon of mass destruction, solar cycles, temperature gradient, ice age storms, snow on rail, abuse replaces debate, climate deniers.
What determines surface temperature at any spot on earth?
Apart from a tad of geothermal heat and a wisp of heat from nuclear power generators, every bit of surface energy (including coal and biomass) comes directly or indirectly from the sun. There is no other source of surface heat – everything else just stores, releases or re-directs solar energy.
Surface heat is maximised when the sun is directly overhead, near a peak in the sunspot cycle and when Earth’s orbit comes closest to the sun (perihelion). The hottest places on earth will be found near the equator, after mid-day, in mid-summer, at perihelion and when there are no clouds in the sky to reflect solar radiation. Temperature will be maximised when there is no cooling wind and no nearby surface water or moist soils to cool things by evaporation. Since higher temperature also occurs at lower altitudes, one of the hottest places on earth is Death Valley, a desert below sea level, where the temperature can reach 56 °C on a mid-summer afternoon.
Frigid temperatures are found near the poles, where solar energy is weak. The coldest place on Earth is Vostok at high altitude in Antarctica where the air is very dry and where the temperature can go as low as minus 89 °C with a cloudless sky in the dead of winter.
Since both extremes could occur simultaneously, Earth’s maximum daily temperature range is thus up to 145 °C. But at any single place, the diurnal variation is more likely to be about 15-40 °C.
Carbon dioxide has no effect on any of the above temperature drivers – it generates no new heat, cannot affect latitude, solar orbits, sun spots, altitude, season, time of day, clouds or the proximity of water. All it can possibly do is encourage plant growth, and intercept, absorb and redirect a tiny bit radiant energy passing either way between the sun, Earth’s surface and space. But that effect is almost exhausted at current levels of carbon dioxide. Doubling the carbon dioxide content from 400 ppm to 800 ppm (which may take the next 100 years) might possibly increase surface temperatures by up to 2 °C – not even noticeable compared to the daily temperature ranges we cope with now.
Everyone can feel the powerful warmth of the rising sun, the variations between summer and winter, the moderating effect of clouds and the shock of hot and cold winds.
But even if carbon dioxide levels doubled overnight, most people on earth would not notice any difference.
More, as well as:
- Water is the Weather Wildcard
- Heatwave Hype and Wind Wisdom
- Heatwaves in Australia are Nothing New
- The Long Retreat from Copenhagen
- My How the Money Rolls in
Read the full report: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/sun-water-winds-and-weather.pdf [PDF, 52KB]
Keywords: Temperature, sun, solar cycles, water, evaporation, clouds, wind, feedbacks, carbon dioxide, weather, heatwaves, data manipulation, green energy subsidies.
We hear continually that “The Science is Settled”. It is easy to find proof that the science of man-made global warming is not settled. Professor Hayden, in a short submission to the EPA demolishes the IPCC science consensus.
He also demolishes the “tipping point” scares and suggests that a warmer world may be a better world anyway.
Read Howard Hayden’s short sharp report:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/hayden-to-jackson.pdf [PDF, 129MB]
About Howard (Cork) Hayden:
He writes and publishes The Energy Advocate, a monthly newsletter (on real paper) about energy. For a sample copy contact: email@example.com
He is the author of the books:
Bass Ackwards: How Climate Alarmists Confuse Cause with Effect
A Primer on Renewable Energy
A Primer on CO2 and Climate
These and other books are available from Vales Lake Publishing, LLC: www.valeslake.com
The Energy Advocate:
PO Box 7609
Pueblo West, CO 81007
“People will do anything to save the world… except take a course in science.”
“Chromoergic psychosis: The delusion that energy has a color, usually green.”
Heat waves are nothing new.
It is often said that many people do not read the minutes of the last meeting.
For days now we have been hearing, about “unprecedented heat” and record temperatures. Naturally the government science and media arms are quick to blame carbon dioxide or man-made global warming for this (and every other unusual weather event).
Firstly, when the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports a “record” temperature, they mean “since 1910 in BOM’s adjusted records”. They ignore all records earlier than 1910 on the excuse such records were not taken in the shade according to their method.
Secondly, they have “adjusted” their raw data for various reasons, and the adjustments have generally “cooled the past” thus increasing the apparent warming trend, and increasing the chances that a recent heat wave will produce “highest ever temperatures”.
Thirdly, neither the BOM nor their lazy media megaphones have learnt to look at the past as recorded in newspapers of the times.
Rick Dean has had such a look and his report, taken verbatim from newspapers of the times, shows that heatwaves (and associated bushfires) are nothing new. He records at least 24 heatwaves in Australia in the period 1886 to 1929. For example:
In 1895 at Bourke there were 66 deaths from heat apoplexy over a period of six weeks, during which time the heat was never under 114 degrees shade heat and, what was worse, never under 100 degrees at night. The maximum temperature recorded under true shade conditions was 128 DegF (53.3 DegC). In Sydney in Jan 1896 the temperature reached 131 DegF in the shade (55 DegC). Publications at the times recorded many earlier heat waves back to 1791.
Read more from this fascinating look at past weather extremes: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/heatwaves-nothing-new.pdf [PDF, 52 KB]
The moon causes tides on Earth. The most obvious ones are in the oceans, but they also occur in the atmosphere and also in ground water and even in the crustal material.
The moon also reflects solar radiation, maximized at full moon and minimized at new moon.
These effects are also maximised at perigee, when the moon is closest to the earth.
Ken Ring is a New Zealand based private weather forecaster. Ken provided the following brief summary of the importance of the Moon on Earth’s weather.
The Effects of the Moon on Earth’s Weather
By Ken Ring
The moon is responsible for the daily atmospheric tide, which changes air height according to the inconstant position of the moon. When the moon is above the horizon the air-tide is “in” and when it sets below the horizon and until the moon rises the air-tide is “out”.
This changing air height varies ground temperatures throughout the day, depending on the moon phase. It is well known that the full moon increases the temperatures on earth:
When the moon is out of the sky in daylight hours (1stQ moon dawn-noon, full moon time dusk-dawn, and lastQ time noon-dusk), the sun’s heat can reach the ground more intensely, with no absorbent air to block its path.
When the moon is out of the sky at night (lastQ dusk to midnight, new moon (midnight-dawn), and 1stQ midnight-dawn), the airtide is “out” letting in more of the heavier cold air from the edge of space which cools the ground more than otherwise.
In summer the full moon time is the hottest of the month, and consequently is around the time of the month when tropical cyclones form, because the water within 6 deg of the equator can be heated to 26-28degC which is required for sufficient evaporation to occur that will provide enough to fuel the cyclonic system. The new moon is also a cyclone breeder, because the new moon is in the sky all day which tends to clear the sky, thus allowing the sun’s heat to again penetrate closer to the ground.
The moon changes hemispheres on a 27-day cycle, due to the tilt of the earth. In summer the new moon is always over the southern hemisphere, the full moon is over the northern hemisphere, and the quarter moons are over the latitude of the equator. In winter the full moon is over the southern hemisphere and new moon over the northern hemisphere.
The perigee is the shortest moon-earth distance, and varies over a 27-day cycle. Perigee exaggerates whatever else is going on. When it is, e.g. full moon and perigee in summer, there is extra heat around. It may be noted that TC Ian began to form around 1st-2nd January, when it was new moon + a very powerful perigee (second closest moon-earth distance) for all of 2014.
There is no way to measure global temperature at any one moment, when at that moment half the world is experiencing freezing winter and the other the half burning heat of summer. Also, half the globe is enjoying daylight and the other half the cold night temperatures. There is no thermometer invented that can measure the temperature of the whole globe at once, nor the temperature of anywhere a day ahead and certainly not measure temperature of anything, let alone the whole world, over a whole decade or century ahead. Anyone who thinks they can is just guessing.
- Ken Ring, of www.predictweather.com is the Australasian longrange forecaster who predicts coming weather patterns by planetary cycles and orbits of the moon and sun. It is science, not astrology.
- Ken is longrange consultant and presenter for both Australia’s Channel Seven and Nine Networks and author of the Weather Almanacs for Australia.
- NZ publisher Random House NZ
Tel: 0011649-817-7625 Mob: 021-970-696
Most of the last 500,000 years have seen Earth gripped by snow and ice, with short warm periods of about 10,000 years long every 100,000 years. We live in this continuing glacial era but are lucky to exist in one of the regular short warm periods.
There is nothing at all unusual about the current warm period, except maybe that it is the period during which modern human civilisation developed.
Within our warm era, we live in a time that is not unusual either – there have been periods warmer and cooler than today, with no real evidence that mankind has caused global warming (apart from minor urban heat bubbles around mega cities).
There is evidence of a correlation between sunspots and Earth temperature, as well as suggested mechanisms to explain this link. The sun clearly has an effect on Earth temperature, and the evidence tends to suggest we could expect global cooling in the near future.
Even within historical times, the Central England Temperature Record, which goes back to 1659, shows a general rising trend since the depths of the Little Ice age, rising to a peak with the solar cycles, and now signalling a falling trend.
Statistics on human usage of carbon fuels show that it is the undeveloped world not the developed world where usage is rising most sharply. Even in emissions per head of population, it is countries like China where the significant growth is occurring. Carbon taxes and targets are costly and futile.
However when we look at how carbon dioxide affects global temperature, the effect is so small as to be insignificant. It is the behaviour of the sun we should be watching.
Ed Hoskins has looked at all of the above factors in a short but revealing essay.
To read more see:http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/hoskins-global-warming-climate-change.pdf [PDF, 1.8MB]
Alley, R.B 2000 The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: pp 213-226.
The UN IPCC and others with a vested interest in the global warming scare have not bothered to check what sea level evidence says about global temperature changes.
Sea levels are very sensitive to temperature changes, and the oceanic indicators are currently reading “steady”.
So are all other thermometers.
Apart from bubbles of heat surrounding big cities, the thermometers and satellites of the world have not shown a warming trend for 17 years. This is in spite of some inspired fiddling with the records by those whose jobs, research grants and reputations depend on their ability to generate alarming forecasts of destructive global warming.
To explain this absence of warming on Earth’s surface, the warmists now claim that “the missing heat is hiding in the deep oceans”.
This sounds like a water-tight alibi, hard to disprove because of our inability to measure “average ocean temperature” directly.
However, the ocean itself is a huge thermometer – all we have to do is to read the gauges.
Most liquids expand when heated, and this property is used in traditional thermometers. They have a glass reservoir filled with liquid (usually mercury) and a graduated scale to measure any thermal expansion of that liquid.
More, as well as:
- The Environmental Multinationals have lost their Way
Read the full report: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/ocean-thermometer.pd [PDF, 153 KB]
Keywords: Sea levels, ocean warning, thermometers, Pacific islands, green multinationals, green energy, CSIRO, climate alarm.
Sea levels have been rising and falling for as far back as we have evidence, and current sea levels are lower than they were during the Roman Warm Period.
Robert Endlich has looked at the evidence still visible today:
An important turning point in British history occurred in 1066, when William the Conqueror defeated King Harold II at the Battle of Hastings. Less well-known is that, when William landed, he occupied an old Roman fort now known as Pevensey Castle, which at the time was located on a small island in a harbor on England’s south coast. A draw bridge connected it to the mainland. Pevensey is infamous because unfortunate prisoners were thrown into this “Sea Gate,” so that their bodies would be washed away by the tide. Pevensey Castle is now a mile from the coast – further proof of a much higher sea level fewer than 1000 years ago.
Before modern Italy, the region was dominated by the famous City States of the Mediterranean, among which is Pisa, with its picturesque Cathedral Square and famous Leaning Tower. Located near the mouth of the Arno River, Pisa was a powerful city, because maritime trade brought goods from sailing ships right into the port. Its reign ended after 1300 AD, the onset of the Little Ice Age, when sea levels fell and ships could no longer sail to her port. Once again, some say “river silting” was the cause.
However, Pisa is now seven miles from the Tyrrhenian Sea, with large meanders upstream from Pisa and little meandering downstream. When a river is “at grade,” the downstream gradient is as low as possible, as with the meandering Mississippi River and delta in Louisiana. Rivers with a strong downstream gradient flow to the sea in a direct route, with few meanders, as with the Rio Grande in New Mexico.
The facts of history are clear. Sea level was 400 feet lower at the end of the Wisconsin Ice Age, 18,000 years ago. Sea levels rose rapidly until 8,000 years ago. As recently as 1066, when the Normans conquered England, sea levels were quite a bit higher than today.
During the Little Ice Age, 1300 to 1850 – when temperatures were the coldest during any time in the past 10,000 years – snow and ice accumulated in Greenland, Antarctica, Europe and glaciers worldwide. As a consequence, sea levels fell so much that important Roman Era and Medieval port cities (like Ephesus, Ostia Antica and Pisa) were left miles from the Mediterranean.
Since the Little Ice Age ended about 160 years ago, tide gages show that sea level has risen at a steady rate – with no correlation to the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
Sea level is a dynamic property in our planet’s climate cycles, which are closely linked to changes in solar energy output and other natural factors. It is unlikely to change in response to tax policies that make energy more expensive and economies less robust – no matter what politicians in Washington, Brussels or the United Nations might say.
Much to their chagrin, Mother Nature doesn’t listen to them. She has a mind of her own.
Robert W. Endlich served as a weather officer in the US Air Force for 21 years and a US Army meteorologist for 17 years. He was elected to Chi Epsilon Pi, the national Meteorology Honor Society, while a basic meteorology student at Texas A&M University. He has degrees in geology and meteorology from Rutgers University and the Pennsylvania State University, respectively, and has studied and visited the ancient sites of Rome, Ostia Antica and Pisa.
For the full article see: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/endlich-sea-level-claims.pdf [PDF, 76 KB]
Ice cores taken in both Antarctica and Greenland show there is nothing new in climate change. The diagrams below were prepared by Guy LeBlanc Smith , Retired Principal Research Scientist, SCIRO.
They show how sea level changes reflect changes in temperature.
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I have spent 55 years in the engineering profession where ignoring the evidence often kills people. Thus I am predisposed to look at the evidence before drawing conclusions.
Many articles and claims about sea levels are in conflict with the evidence.
For instance, sea level has been rising at something between 2 and 3 mm per year since the end of the Little ice age. As you can see from the graph, there is no indication that the rate of sea level rise is increasing. There is some indication that the rate of rise has reduced slightly since 2006.
In addition, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology set up a chain of sea level measuring stations around Australia and in the Pacific that are the most accurate in the world. As you can see from the chart, the sea level at Tuvalu dropped markedly during the 1997 – 1998 El Niño and since 2000 it has been substantially constant. Claims that Tuvalu is sinking beneath rising sea levels caused by man-made carbon dioxide therefore cannot be true. it is most unfortunate that many people who choose to spread this rumour have not bothered to look at the data. It is particularly unfortunate for the population of Tuvalu because they have been told that their very real problems with erosion are beyond their control when, in fact, they have largely caused them by taking too much fresh water out of the water table and by mining the reef for coral to reclaim land. If the powers that be recognised that this is the case, then aid could be concentrated on solving the real problems, not the imaginary ones.
One division is 100 mm.
Others claim that Pacific Islands are disappearing. Once again, this does not stack up against the evidence:
Bryan Leyland MSc, FIEE(rtd), FIMechE, FIPENZ.