The Percival Effect
Correlations, Causes and Dis-proofs
Every morning just before dawn our rooster crows and soon afterwards the sun comes up. We have observed no exceptions over three months – clear evidence of perfect correlation. Therefore we have concluded that the crowing rooster causes the sun to rise.
My wife Flora (who believes that the Cooee birds bring the rain) said: “I knew that ages ago – Professor Percival told me.”
So I consulted Professor Percival, our neighbour. He is Professor Emeritus in the “Science in Society” Department at Top-Line University. He specialises in the effect of sound waves on atmospheric transmissivity. He says that some roosters produce sound waves of just the right frequency to affect the dawn visibility through the thick morning atmosphere. He has written pal-reviewed papers on the subject which has been named “The Percival Effect”. In all the hallowed halls, it is regarded as “settled science”.
Cartoon credit: http://stevehunterillustrations.com.au/political-cartoons/
However, we decided that our rooster was not doing his day job, so he ended up as roast dinner last night.
Flora was very concerned – “what if the sun does not appear at all tomorrow?” she wailed.
But the sun rose as normal.
Flora was relieved but a concerned Professor Percival went off to check his calculations “for feedback loops”. He is still checking.
One thing was proved conclusively in just one day – the rooster’s crowing does not make the sun appear. Something else causes the sun to rise. Our ninety-two correlations did not prove causation. But just one disproof was needed to kill the Percival Effect.
So it is with the Greenhouse Effect. For about 20 years now, carbon dioxide levels have risen steadily but global temperatures are trending level. Therefore CO2 does not control global temperature.
One disproof is all that is needed.
“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” – Albert Einstein
(Disclosure: Big Rooster has not funded any of this research.)
“The claim that increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is causing “global warming” . . has no more scientific foundation than the bloodletting of past generations:”
Acknowledgement: I am indebted to the late Bert Kelly, MP, for introducing me to “Farmer Fred” many years ago. Bert was a Liberal MP from South Australia, who became famous for his regular media articles by “Modest Member”. Bert was one of the most sensible men to ever be elected to Parliament, and one of the founders of “The Dries” so naturally did not advance far in Parliament. Some of his history can be found here: http://bertkelly.org.au/
Here is the first Modest Member column, from 1969, where Bert introduces his main characters including Fred the farmer: http://economics.org.au/2011/04/first-modest-member-bert-kelly-afr-column/
Read more, as well as:
- Recycling Burps and Farts
- Keep Them Airborne, All the Time
- Restoring a Sense of Perspective
- The Hottest Afternoon EVAAH!!
Read the full report: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/farmer-fred.pdf [PDF, 269KB]
Keywords: Greenhouse Effect, correlations, causes, dis-proofs, sheep, emissions, targets, methane, travel rorts, temperature
data manipulation, Paris Conference.