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The 2013 Heatwave in SE Queensland


By Mike Williamson
12 January 2013

There has been much comment on our summer heatwave. This prompted a search for the history of temperatures in S.E. Queensland.

The longest continuous record of local temperatures was from Amberley: the data set was begun in late 1941 and is still active.

See: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=36&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=040004

The record shows that the highest monthly mean maximum temperature for the month of January in each year was way back in 1942 and has not been surpassed since. (See Figure 1)

Amberley January Mean
Figure 1 (click to enlarge)

The linear trend for the years 1942 to 2012, shows is a slight rise in the temperature trend. This is not surprising as the Earth’s temperatures have had several rising phases ever since the last Ice Age ended over 10,000 years ago.

The Amberley data shows that the highest mean maximum January temperatures appear to be fairly similar when they periodically occur. However the lower mean maximums appear to be creating the very slight upward trend.

This does not then appear to support the man-made global warming hypothesis since if carbon dioxide is retaining heat in the atmosphere it should do so at all temperature levels, whether high or low. If carbon dioxide is causing the heating, why is carbon dioxide rising steadily whereas temperatures are not?

A Short Observation on Bushfires

Grass, peat, leaves and timber all ignite at temperatures well above 40oC. Even highly inflammable, easily ignitable, kerosene needs a spark exceeding 200oC for combustion to be initiated. Therefore heat wave temperatures cannot cause fires. Something else ignited them. Once ignited, hot temperatures and high winds make the fires more severe, but something else ignited them.

[Mike Williamson is a Graduate Fuel Technologist/Chemical Engineer, with experience in minerals processing and applications of coal technology. He is now retired and has no connection with industry of any kind. As a self-funded retiree he relies upon lifetime savings for his quality of life in retirement. No one paid him or asked him to produce this.]



Carbon Fools Day


Australian Senate passes Carbon Tax Bill – Nov 8 2011.
– a date that will be remembered as Carbon Fools Day.

Just a year ago, Australia joined the ranks of Carbon Fools by passing the Carbon Tax Bill (actually 18 separate bills called the “Clean Energy Bills”.) Now the same fools who introduced it are among the front rank of volunteers for carbon suicide by trumpeting their intention to sign Kyoto 2.

Barack Obama and Julia Gillard are founding members of the Carbon Fools Club, and have learned tricks from one another on how to betray the electorate without getting punished.

Before the election Gillard said “There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”. Her Treasurer confirmed the promise. After the election, she changed her mind and introduced it. Now she is proceeding to bribe enough of the electorate into acceptance of the betrayal.
(more…)



Brisbane Floods are Nothing New


Flood plains are for floods and the banks of the Bremer and Brisbane Rivers are no exception. Nor is the big flood of 2011 a record in river level, duration or damage.

The grand-daddy for water levels was 1841, but the year that takes the prize as the worst flood in the Brisbane/Bremer Rivers must surely be the four floods of 1893.

See: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/brisbane-floods-of-1893.pdf [PDF, 108KB]



John Oxley on the Brisbane floods


A bit of Brisbane’s flood history:

1824 John Oxley, early explorer, mentioned evidence of an inundation which he discovered on 19 September 1824 in an area north of the junction of the Bremer with the Brisbane: “the starboard bank an elevated flat of rich land, declining to a point where had evidently by its sandy shore and pebbly surface, been at some time washed by an inundation; a flood would be too weak an expression to use for a collection of water rising to the full height (full fifty feet) which the appearance of the shore here renders
possible.” (Ref 2)
1825 Major Edmund Lockyer mentioned the evidence of a large flood while in the area of today’s Mount Crosby pumping station – “marks of drift grass and pieces of wood washed up on the sides of the banks and up into the branches of the trees, marked the flood to rise here of one hundred feet”. Lockyer’s descendant, Nicholas Lockyer, in 1919 made the following remarks: “the official record of the flood level of the river on the 4th February 1893 at the Pumping Station, the site of which is within a mile of Lockyer’s camp, was 94 feet 10.5 inches. His remarks would seem to suggest that between Oxley’s visit in September 1824 and his [Major
Edmund Lockyer] own in September 1825, the river had experienced a flood as great as that subsequently experienced in February 1893.” (Ref 2)

Source and references: http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

More history:

brisbane-flood-peaks.gif

Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/infographics/qld-floods/peaks.htm



Snow saves Northern Hemisphere from Global Warming Disaster


Just in time for Christmas, people in the northern hemisphere have been saved from the horrors of man-made global warming as they enjoy yet another record cold and early winter. The fourth in a row! Good for them!

Considering how nasty a bit of warming is, according to Al Gore and the infinitely wise IPCC, they might have had to endure a mild winter instead. But fortunately it comes complete with bitterly cold blizzards and massive snow dumps to alleviate the horrendous 0.60C of extra warming we’ve all had to suffer since the Industrial Revolution.

This teeny amount warming is of course catastrophically bad for the planet because the IPCC and Al Gore say so. Al Gore even made a tragi-comedy about it. And since the IPCC is a branch of the wonderfully kind UN, itself bursting at the seams with honest politicians never known to exaggerate, tell lies or have ulterior motives, it must be entirely true. How relieved they all must be that it’s freezing in the northern hemisphere!

What a splendid Christmas present!

Joe Fone
Christchurch, New Zealand.



A Heat Wave is Hot Weather, not Global Warming


The Editor,

Someone should tell your gloating Prime Minister that just because some part of Oz is experiencing record high temperatures it does NOT mean that the ‘planet’ (as we now call it because it sounds profound) is warming. For example, NZ has had two of the coldest months on record. Places all around the world are often colder or warmer than ‘normal’. But the averages have not changed since the days of Ned Kelly’s grandfather – and before. It would be remarkable, indeed, if that were not the case.

Obviously Mr Rudd paid more attention to Mandarin than meteorology.

Keep trucking!

JC
New Zealand



Our Future Winters May be Colder


It was the year 1799, during the “Dalton Minimum” when the sun was quiet that George Frederick Bollinger led a group of early pioneers from North Carolina to establish early settlements in Missouri. They hoped to cross their largest obstacle, the Mississippi River, on the ice, frozen solid in mid-winter.

The pioneers and their wagon train moved westward a few miles each day, making and breaking camp each night, fording the small streams and floating across the larger ones on rafts which they made from the nearby trees, following roads that were barely trails through forests and valleys.

They arrived on the east bank of the Mississippi River opposite St. Genevieve in late December, pitched camp and explored potential river crossings. St. Genevieve is located about a 100 miles downstream from St. Louis. Winter had come early and the Mississippi river was already covered with ice. It was bitterly cold. They determined the ice was not yet thick enough to support a crossing of ox-carts and covered wagons. Daily the thickness of the ice was measured and then on Dec. 31, a chopped hole in the ice indicated thickness well over two feet. They tested the ice by making a few trips across on foot and horseback. The believed the ice was thick enough to support a loaded wagon.

As a test, a wagon was selected to be driven across with no one riding and the driver would walk ahead watching the ice and leading his team. The trip across and back to camp was made without the ice cracking and preparations were made for an early crossing New Year’s Day.

The next morning final preparations were made to break camp and all supplies were loaded. The weather remained bitter cold with dark skies overhead and light snow falling, but the decision had been made to cross and there was no turning back. The group was devout German Reformed Protestants and they gathered together in the early cold gray dawn to seek guidance from their God for a safe crossing.

The cracking of whips like pistol shots rang out over the heads of the oxen to coax them out onto the ice; the crossing had began. All that were able, walked to lighten the loaded wagons, keeping a safe distance from the wagons, which were also spaced far apart to lessen the danger of breaking the ice. The crossing was made successfully with no mishaps, except extremely cold hands and feet.

The townsfolk of St. Genevieve had built a large fire to welcome and warm these new settlers. Safely across the Mississippi, they were relieved of their crossing fears and enjoyed the local hospitality. They exchanged news from the East for information of what they might expect ahead. Needed supplies were purchased and even the weather abated a little as the sun broke through the clouds. They settled along the Whitewater River where the soil was rich.

We are transitioning into Solar Cycle (SC) 24 and the sun has become fairly quiet. During most of the last century (SC 16-23) the sun has been in a Grand Maxima. As a result the Earth has experienced warming. But with SC 24 the sun is again changing states. From the peak year 1998, the lower Troposphere temperatures globally have already fallen around 1/2 degree Celsius. This is despite the fact that during that same time period, atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen 5% from 367 ppm to 386 ppm. Several solar scientist are predicting the sun will slide into a “Dalton Minimum” event in SC 25, about a decade from now. If that happens, the Earth will experience some bitterly cold winters for several decades.

The winters may once again resemble the winters 200 years ago during the time of the early pioneers. Imagine for a minute the west fork of the White River near Bloomfield freezing into a block of ice two feet thick.

James A. Marusek
Bloomfield USA

First published Greene County Daily Word, 19 Mar 2009.

http://gcdailyworld.com/story/1510388.html

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