Every time a north wind blows hot air over Adelaide, some Chicken Little cries “Global Warming”. And when an El Nino predictably causes a hot year like 1998 or 2015/16, some sensation-seeking celebrity will trumpet “hottest year eevah”.
They are watching short-term weather ripples and waves and ignoring the underlying climate tide. Daily, monthly and yearly temperature records will always be equalled or broken. That is what weather does – it fluctuates.
In the medium term, Earth temperature trends are influenced by variations in solar activities as evidenced by sun-spot cycles. These variations affect solar intensity, cosmic rays, clouds and Earth temperature, causing medium-term climatic events like the Little Ice Age and the Modern Warming. There are persuasive signs that recent solar activity has peaked. So maybe we can expect cooler weather soon.
Cosmic Cycles, not Carbon Dioxide, Control Climate
This cartoon may be used freely providing the author, Steve Hunter, and the source is acknowledged: www.carbon-sense.com
Those who think the political war on carbon will lower Earth’s temperature or keep climate stable need to study climate history.
Temperatures on Earth dance to a cyclic rhythm every hour, every day, every month, every season, every year, and to every beat of the sun-spot and glacial cycles.
The daily solar cycle causes continual changes in temperature for every spot on Earth. It produces the frosts at dawn, the mid-day heat and the cooling at sunset. It is regulated by rotation of the Earth.
Superimposed on the daily solar cycle is the monthly lunar cycle, driven by the orbit of the Moon around the Earth. These two cycles interact to produce variations in atmospheric pressure and tides, and currents in the oceans and the atmosphere. These are the daily weather makers. (more…)
Or “Droughts and Extreme Weather are Nothing New.” by Dr Bill Johnson
Outpourings of climate bulldust over recent decades have been more alarming than changes in the climate.
Drought and above-average temperatures during recent El Niño-dominated years from 2001 to 2010 were deliberately and relentlessly marketed as global-warming. Driven incestuously by WWF and its Wentworth Group; green groups; Climate Commissioners; and a bunch of pretend-institutes, superlatives flew-up every greasy-pole out through talking-heads into the community’s ear.
Australians endured an endless chatter-based marketing campaign involving the ABC, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology that intertwined CO2; the hot/critical decade; Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) “health”; and the carbon tax; grinding them into our national psyche. Science was reorganised with rivers of tax-payers cash enticing once-proud universities to lend brand to the cause. Every hot/cold/dry/wet day, clamouring professors popped out of disused broom-cupboards across the land, waving models and “new reports”. It was an overt scientifically-disingenuous beat-up.
There is an old scientific tenet that says “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof”.
I commenced an independent, comprehensive investigation of CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) some 25 years ago because of the direct potential impact this would have on my farming enterprise.
Farmers work directly with nature and climate as they pursue their farming and grazing activities and if the world was going to warm, possibly catastrophically, it would at the very least mean a substantial change in my enterprise mix and management approach, and at worst, might mean I could no longer continue to farm.
I therefore had a strong vested interest in attempting to understand the science (and politics) behind the claims that were being made so that I could take appropriate action as future climatic events developed and demanded.
It goes without saying that I needed to seek out the actual truth with an open mind as it would be clearly counter- productive to delude myself with preconceived or incorrect ideas and assumptions.
It is a long story but what I found, quite early on in my investigation, is that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), despite having spent many billions of dollars on attempting to find compelling evidence to substantiate their hypothesis, have been totally unable to do so.
At first I could not believe this, I must be wrong, so I carefully and critically re-read the IPCC Reports and much other relevant information. The result was the same, NO valid empirical evidence 1 has ever been cited. I was and am astounded.
A very careful study has shown that ‘Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming’ has proven to be no more than a politically generated fairy tale, yet the media, most Governments, many scientific organisations, Universities and others continue to ignore any and all evidence that challenges the IPCC claims and blindly accept what they say.
Ray Evans was one of the first Australians to recognise the poor science and dangerous goals of the global warmists. Way back in 2006, Ray wrote a well-reasoned booklet entitled “Nine Facts about Climate Change”. It still stands as a clear summary of the debate.
What determines surface temperature at any spot on earth?
Apart from a tad of geothermal heat and a wisp of heat from nuclear power generators, every bit of surface energy (including coal and biomass) comes directly or indirectly from the sun. There is no other source of surface heat – everything else just stores, releases or re-directs solar energy.
Surface heat is maximised when the sun is directly overhead, near a peak in the sunspot cycle and when Earth’s orbit comes closest to the sun (perihelion). The hottest places on earth will be found near the equator, after mid-day, in mid-summer, at perihelion and when there are no clouds in the sky to reflect solar radiation. Temperature will be maximised when there is no cooling wind and no nearby surface water or moist soils to cool things by evaporation. Since higher temperature also occurs at lower altitudes, one of the hottest places on earth is Death Valley, a desert below sea level, where the temperature can reach 56 °C on a mid-summer afternoon.
Frigid temperatures are found near the poles, where solar energy is weak. The coldest place on Earth is Vostok at high altitude in Antarctica where the air is very dry and where the temperature can go as low as minus 89 °C with a cloudless sky in the dead of winter.
Since both extremes could occur simultaneously, Earth’s maximum daily temperature range is thus up to 145 °C. But at any single place, the diurnal variation is more likely to be about 15-40 °C.
Carbon dioxide has no effect on any of the above temperature drivers – it generates no new heat, cannot affect latitude, solar orbits, sun spots, altitude, season, time of day, clouds or the proximity of water. All it can possibly do is encourage plant growth, and intercept, absorb and redirect a tiny bit radiant energy passing either way between the sun, Earth’s surface and space. But that effect is almost exhausted at current levels of carbon dioxide. Doubling the carbon dioxide content from 400 ppm to 800 ppm (which may take the next 100 years) might possibly increase surface temperatures by up to 2 °C – not even noticeable compared to the daily temperature ranges we cope with now.
Everyone can feel the powerful warmth of the rising sun, the variations between summer and winter, the moderating effect of clouds and the shock of hot and cold winds.
But even if carbon dioxide levels doubled overnight, most people on earth would not notice any difference.
It is often said that many people do not read the minutes of the last meeting.
For days now we have been hearing, about “unprecedented heat” and record temperatures. Naturally the government science and media arms are quick to blame carbon dioxide or man-made global warming for this (and every other unusual weather event).
Firstly, when the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports a “record” temperature, they mean “since 1910 in BOM’s adjusted records”. They ignore all records earlier than 1910 on the excuse such records were not taken in the shade according to their method.
Secondly, they have “adjusted” their raw data for various reasons, and the adjustments have generally “cooled the past” thus increasing the apparent warming trend, and increasing the chances that a recent heat wave will produce “highest ever temperatures”.
Thirdly, neither the BOM nor their lazy media megaphones have learnt to look at the past as recorded in newspapers of the times.
Rick Dean has had such a look and his report, taken verbatim from newspapers of the times, shows that heatwaves (and associated bushfires) are nothing new. He records at least 24 heatwaves in Australia in the period 1886 to 1929. For example:
In 1895 at Bourke there were 66 deaths from heat apoplexy over a period of six weeks, during which time the heat was never under 114 degrees shade heat and, what was worse, never under 100 degrees at night. The maximum temperature recorded under true shade conditions was 128 DegF (53.3 DegC). In Sydney in Jan 1896 the temperature reached 131 DegF in the shade (55 DegC). Publications at the times recorded many earlier heat waves back to 1791.
The moon causes tides on Earth. The most obvious ones are in the oceans, but they also occur in the atmosphere and also in ground water and even in the crustal material.
The moon also reflects solar radiation, maximized at full moon and minimized at new moon.
These effects are also maximised at perigee, when the moon is closest to the earth.
Ken Ring is a New Zealand based private weather forecaster. Ken provided the following brief summary of the importance of the Moon on Earth’s weather.
The Effects of the Moon on Earth’s Weather
By Ken Ring
The moon is responsible for the daily atmospheric tide, which changes air height according to the inconstant position of the moon. When the moon is above the horizon the air-tide is “in” and when it sets below the horizon and until the moon rises the air-tide is “out”.
This changing air height varies ground temperatures throughout the day, depending on the moon phase. It is well known that the full moon increases the temperatures on earth:
When the moon is out of the sky in daylight hours (1stQ moon dawn-noon, full moon time dusk-dawn, and lastQ time noon-dusk), the sun’s heat can reach the ground more intensely, with no absorbent air to block its path.
When the moon is out of the sky at night (lastQ dusk to midnight, new moon (midnight-dawn), and 1stQ midnight-dawn), the airtide is “out” letting in more of the heavier cold air from the edge of space which cools the ground more than otherwise.
In summer the full moon time is the hottest of the month, and consequently is around the time of the month when tropical cyclones form, because the water within 6 deg of the equator can be heated to 26-28degC which is required for sufficient evaporation to occur that will provide enough to fuel the cyclonic system. The new moon is also a cyclone breeder, because the new moon is in the sky all day which tends to clear the sky, thus allowing the sun’s heat to again penetrate closer to the ground.
The moon changes hemispheres on a 27-day cycle, due to the tilt of the earth. In summer the new moon is always over the southern hemisphere, the full moon is over the northern hemisphere, and the quarter moons are over the latitude of the equator. In winter the full moon is over the southern hemisphere and new moon over the northern hemisphere.
The perigee is the shortest moon-earth distance, and varies over a 27-day cycle. Perigee exaggerates whatever else is going on. When it is, e.g. full moon and perigee in summer, there is extra heat around. It may be noted that TC Ian began to form around 1st-2nd January, when it was new moon + a very powerful perigee (second closest moon-earth distance) for all of 2014.
There is no way to measure global temperature at any one moment, when at that moment half the world is experiencing freezing winter and the other the half burning heat of summer. Also, half the globe is enjoying daylight and the other half the cold night temperatures. There is no thermometer invented that can measure the temperature of the whole globe at once, nor the temperature of anywhere a day ahead and certainly not measure temperature of anything, let alone the whole world, over a whole decade or century ahead. Anyone who thinks they can is just guessing.
Most of the last 500,000 years have seen Earth gripped by snow and ice, with short warm periods of about 10,000 years long every 100,000 years. We live in this continuing glacial era but are lucky to exist in one of the regular short warm periods.
There is nothing at all unusual about the current warm period, except maybe that it is the period during which modern human civilisation developed.
Within our warm era, we live in a time that is not unusual either – there have been periods warmer and cooler than today, with no real evidence that mankind has caused global warming (apart from minor urban heat bubbles around mega cities).
There is evidence of a correlation between sunspots and Earth temperature, as well as suggested mechanisms to explain this link. The sun clearly has an effect on Earth temperature, and the evidence tends to suggest we could expect global cooling in the near future.
Even within historical times, the Central England Temperature Record, which goes back to 1659, shows a general rising trend since the depths of the Little Ice age, rising to a peak with the solar cycles, and now signalling a falling trend.
Statistics on human usage of carbon fuels show that it is the undeveloped world not the developed world where usage is rising most sharply. Even in emissions per head of population, it is countries like China where the significant growth is occurring. Carbon taxes and targets are costly and futile.
However when we look at how carbon dioxide affects global temperature, the effect is so small as to be insignificant. It is the behaviour of the sun we should be watching.
Ed Hoskins has looked at all of the above factors in a short but revealing essay.