AFS – APOCALYPSE FATIGUE SYNDROME


AFS – APOCALYPSE FATIGUE SYNDROME

Hon Keith DeLacy AM

As an inherently impressionable person I have been dealing with the coming apocalypse all my life. It started with the bible. The Book of Revelation in the New Testament vividly warned of impending doom, and many of the Hebrew prophets forecast the apocalypse.

Pope Sylvester II at the beginning of the millennium year 1000, predicted the Millennium Apocalypse, the end of the world. Riots occurred throughout Europe and pilgrims headed to Jerusalem seeking salvation.

And the Apocalypse was always associated with sin, it was deserved. “And these will go away to eternal punishment, but the righteous into eternal life.” (Matthew 25:40) If I had been thinking sinful thoughts, I trembled at night, dreaming of the fires of hell. There was no escape.

Thomas Malthus wrote an Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798 and became the preeminent father of doom. Unchecked population growth would lead to inevitable catastrophe – population growth was exponential while the growth in food supply was arithmetical.

We were impressionable kids, we grew up with Malthusiasm, waiting for doomsday. It was a compelling argument. Yet 200 years later, despite exponential population growth the world is so much wealthier and better fed. The Malthusian apocalypse was no better than Pope Sylvester’s.

Paul Erhlich became a cult figure in the 1970’s. Malthus’ inability to deliver on his population apocalypse proved no deterrence to Erhlich. He wrote The Population Bomb in 1968 forecasting that “sometime between 1970 and 85 the world will undergo vast famines, hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.”
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HYDRO ELECTRIC POWER, PUMP STORAGE AND BATTERY STORAGE


HYDRO ELECTRIC POWER, PUMP STORAGE AND BATTERY STORAGE.

Terence Cardwell

TUMUT 1 HYDRO ELECTRIC POWER STATION.

There has been so much talk and false information about Hydro Electric Power Stations, pump storage and System battery storage that I felt it was time to put the facts straight.

Some of the most incorrect and misleading information is from self appoint university experts who have made all sorts of ridiculous statements. As well as from some politicians who either live in fairy land or are deliberately lying. You decide.

Do I know what I’m taking about; I was with the Electricity Commission of N.S.W. for 26 years in a number of positions including the commissioning and in charge of the Coal Fired Thermal Generators at Tallawarra, Wallerawang and Munmorah Power Stations.
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Lights Out



Lights Out

For yonks they waged a war on coal
And painted miners black;
They threw explorers on the dole
And shut the gates outback.

The land was closed to oil and gas
And nukes were always banned;
While wind and sun got all the brass
And uglified the land.

Poles and turbines all in ranks
Sprouted on the hills;
The carbon credits pleased the banks
And households got the bills.

Then all the factories fled offshore
As puny power flickered;
More jobs were lost for evermore
As politicians dickered.

Then one still night the lights went out
And blackouts stalked the land;
The pollies quickly turned about
And Greens were spurned and banned.

To view or print the whole newsletter plus images click:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/lights-out.pdf

Daring to Doubt by Tony Abbott:

Climate change is by no means the sole or even the most significant
symptom of the changing interests and values of the West. Still, only
societies with high levels of cultural amnesia could have made such a religion
out of it. Beware the pronouncement, “the science is settled”. It’s the spirit of
the Inquisition, the thought-police down the ages. Almost as bad is the claim
that “99 per cent of scientists believe” as if scientific truth is determined by
votes rather than facts.

– Tony Abbott, 2017 Annual GWPF Lecture, London 9 October 2017

https://www.thegwpf.org/tony-abbott-daring-to-doubt
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/10/dangerous-abbott-unleashed-speaks-the-truth-critics-froth-and-flounder/

Escaping the Renewable Energy Trap
by Alan Moran:
https://www.spectator.com.au/2017/09/escaping-the-renewable-energy-subsidy-trap/

The Paris Agreement
by President Donald Trump
What he really said.
https://www.thegwpf.com/reminder-what-president-trump-really-said-about-the-paris-agreement/

Serious Defects in Australia’s Energy Policies
A group of retired senior engineers challenge Australia’s bi-partisan energy
foolishness. See:
https://carbon-sense.com/2017/10/13/open-letter-to-the-prime-minister-of-australia/

Personal
Thanks to all of those who sent well-wishes on our moving adventure and downsizing of our lives. Some even sent contributions to the depleted Carbon Sense cause.
We are making progress on the shift. As an experienced shifter predicted, we have reached the “where did we put that” stage.
Next we will be saying – “why did we keep that stuff”.
But our office is now working and more Carbon Sense will flow again. Thanks for your support.

Viv Forbes

To view or print the whole newsletter plus images click:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/lights-out.pdf



Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Australia


OPEN LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER, AND TO THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION.

We are a group of retired scientists and engineers in Queensland, and we are alarmed at the direction our country is being taken through your respective policies, which are virtually identical, on renewable energy. Our names are listed here. We have studied this issue for years now, and we have here outlined the serious defects in your energy policy, and asked some questions which have thus far remained unanswered.

Energy Policy. By far the greatest risk to Australia’s electricity supply is the false belief that renewables (wind and solar) can be a like-for-like replacement for dispatchable fossil fuelled generators. They are not, and can never be. A one-MW wind or solar plant does not replace a one-MW coal plant. Not even close. Solar plants will produce electricity on average at 20% of their installed capacity. They produce power for little more than eight hours per day and none at all at night or on rainy days. Wind plants can be expected to produce electricity on average 25% to 30% of installed capacity, but output can be as little as 2% or as much as 70% with little warning.

Media reports in June this year referred to a “wind drought” across Southern Australia resulting in wind production being “40% below the previous corresponding period”. This is a problem but masks an even more intractable false belief; that an energy grid can run on averages. It can’t, because energy consumed has to be generated in real time. Just one example of that wind drought: at 2.20 PM on 5 th May this year, all the wind farms in Australia (4400 MW installed capacity in WA, SA, Vic, Tas and NSW) were producing just 121MW. (That’s 4400 MW capacity generating only 121MW). In fact for May and June this year this was not uncommon. Large high pressure systems over southern Australia meant little or no wind for weeks at a time.

The grid has to meet demand every minute of every day. AEMO can and does order fossil fuelled plants to produce electricity. Clearly it cannot do so for wind or solar. Just imagine Australia with a largely renewable energy system — it is night time so no solar power is being generated, and the whole of Southern Australia is dominated by high pressure systems (this is not unusual) and wind is producing at only 2% of installed capacity! To date dispatchable fossil fuelled generators have been able to shoulder the load but as dispatchable capacity is retired this may no longer be possible, with disastrous consequences.

On the face of it the answer is storage, either battery, pumped hydro or molten salt. This brings us to the next false belief; that storage is some sort of magic pudding. The capacity of current storage technologies is miniscule compared with daily demand. Australian grid demand varies between 18,000 MW minimum and 30,000 MW maximum. Over 24 hours this works out to about 600,000 MWh per day. The Tesla battery being installed in South Australia is said to be the world’s largest and to hold 129 MWh fully charged. This may be enough to support the local grid for a short time until dispatchable capacity can be started, but an unimaginable number of Tesla batteries would be necessary to maintain grid supply for a day or a week, or even longer in the worst case.
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Shadows over Greentopia


Blackouts Stalk Green Energy Utopia

It is 7pm on a cold still night in the city which boasts “100% Green Energy”.

Thousands of electric cars are in their garages plugged into chargers; electric lights,
heaters and TVs are running; electric stoves are cooking dinner, electric trains and lifts
are moving late commuters and early revellers, and the pubs and clubs are busy.

The hills bristle with turbines, but there is no wind and not one is turning. Every roof is
covered with solar panels, but there is no sunshine and the panels are fast asleep. The
green city is facing peak electricity demand… on batteries.

But for several days, clouds have shaded the solar panels and there has been no wind
to turn the turbines – the battalions of batteries are running out of juice. One by one
they drop out. The street lights fade and the city goes dark.

In this green energy utopia all the wicked coal-powered generators have been closed
or demolished, exploration for gas is forbidden, no one dares to mention nuclear, hydro
schemes have gone (replaced by “Wild Rivers”), new hydro developments are stalled
by green lawyers, and diesel generators and petrol cars are banned.

This cartoon may be used with acknowledgement to www.carbon-sense.com

There is only one problem with this green perfection.

When the city wakes to another cloudy windless day, where will its electricity come
from?

And when all the stoves and fridges, computers and TV’s, lifts and trains, traffic lights
and water pumps, checkouts and ATM’s, heaters and coolers – – – all stop working,
there will soon be an angry mob seeking the nearest politician to punish.

Further Reading:

The Blackout Next Time:
https://townhall.com/columnists/FrankGaffney/2017/09/12/the-blackout-next-time-n2379923

Ecocity madness:
http://www.cfact.org/2017/07/12/al-gore-praised-australian-state-plagued-by-blackouts-for-leading-the-world-in-green-energy/

A Looming Disaster in Energy Security:
http://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2017/06/looming-disaster-energy-security/

Keep a diesel in the Shed:
http://carbon-sense.com/2017/04/20/diesel-in-shed/

Rolling Blackouts Loom in Britain:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rolling-blackouts-loom-after-coalition-energy-chaos-9vs7fh3phxk

Green Germany facing power blackouts:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9609777/Germany-facing-power-blackouts.html

Wind Turbines are neither clean nor green and provide zero global energy:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/wind-turbines-are-neither-clean-nor-green-and-they-provide-zero-global-energy/

South Australia (the green energy state) copes by shutting industries:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/02/aemo-plant-closures-helping-to-stabilise-south-australias-green-electricity-grid/
http://canadafreepress.com/article/electricity-prices-in-south-australia-skyrocket

Is the Green Energy Story Sustainable?:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/03/revisiting-wind-turbine-impacts-erroneous-recent-calculation-highlights-need-to-assess-renewable-energy-sustainability-claims/

While the Babblers Bleat about Global Warming, our Huge Heater in the Heavens gets Weaker:
http://notrickszone.com/2017/08/23/solar-cycle-continues-to-be-the-weakest-in-2-centuries/

Gore’s Latest Alarmist Movie Flops:

Al Gore’s Inconvenient Sequel:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/22/climate-scientist-rebuts-al-gore-film-bad-science/

Phony Sequel Rejected:
http://www.wnd.com/2017/07/10-reasons-to-reject-al-gores-phony-sequel/

Gore Debunked:
http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/09/06/al-gore-inconvenient-sequel-climate-change-debunked-scientist-roy-spencer

Trump on the Paris Agreement:
https://www.thegwpf.com/reminder-what-president-trump-really-said-about-the-paris-agreement/

How They Pulled Off the Great Global Warming Conspiracy (Satire):
http://www.theonion.com/video/climate-change-researcher-describes-challenge-pull-56872

Wind Farms killing Whales now?
https://wcfn.org/2017/05/23/windfarms-whale-beachings/

A Personal Explanation

We received the note below recently, and there have been several others asking similar questions:

Hi Viv

Haven’t heard from you for a while.
I hope you have not resigned from the “Cause” out of disgust.
The man-made energy crisis is a disgrace and the political class worse.
If only we could delete all reference to emissions from the Black Board of Climate.
I still have a hope that Trump will do what he promised in election-speak.
Any chance you could be induced to consider a political role?
The money is unbelievably good.
Best Wishes
Howard

The Explanation: After 27 years at “Sherana” at Rosevale, Judy and I decided it was time to downsize. It is 9 months since that decisive decision, but at last we have almost achieved it. We went from 700 acres to 40 acres and sold all of our cattle, 70% of our sheep, had a huge clearing sale of machinery, tools, stock equipment, office furniture and assorted stuff. Prior to that we had to empty 16X4 drawer filing cabinets of a lifetime of work and political agitation as well as a hay shed full of boxes of files and paper. (I even found my letter of resignation from the Liberal Party in 1974. What I said to them then still applies now, only more so.) I threw out files on Workers Party, Progress Party, The Foundation for Economic Education, Tax Payers United, The Council of Resources and Energy, the Grasslands Protection Society, Common Sense and thousands of words in speeches, letters and articles. Also threw out a life- time of working files starting with my first job on the public payroll at the Geological Survey of Queensland to my last job as a non-executive director of Stanmore Coal Ltd. We now have no regular income apart from savings, but we do produce our own lamb, eggs, dairy products and citrus and will work on a garden.

The whole long arduous process felt like I was throwing our life away, but we could store it no longer. Yesterday I got my new office working at the new place, so now am preparing more “Carbon Sense”.

And, if our patient supporters return, we will continue the fight for Carbon Sense, Clexit, and sensible energy policies.

Viv Forbes



New Book by Ian Plimer: “The Climate Change Delusion & the Great Electricity Ripoff”


Click the image for a PDF version.



Energy & Environmental Newsletter: July 24, 2017


By John Droz, Jr.
Source: https://www.masterresource.org/alliance-for-wise-energy-decisions/energy-environmental-newsletter-july-24-2017/

The Alliance for Wise Energy Decisions (AWED) is an informal coalition of individuals and organizations interested in improving national, state, and local energy and environmental policies. Our premise is that technical matters like these should be addressed by using Real Science (please consult WiseEnergy.org for more information).

A key element of AWED’s efforts is public education. Towards that end, every three weeks we put together a newsletter to balance what is found in the mainstream media about energy and the environment. We appreciate MasterResource for their assistance in publishing this information.

Some of the more important articles in this issue are:
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Finkel Report Fails Science, Fails Consumers, and Fails Australia


Dr Finkel, grandly titled as “Australia’s Chief Scientist”, was paid by tax payers to produce A Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market.

This report has been studied and is rated “FAIL”.

It Fails in Science
It Fails Electricity Consumers
It Fails Australia

But Green Energy Promotors are Delighted.

Substantiation of this “FAIL” assessment can be found here in this magnificent Open Letter by Dr Michael Crawford.

See: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/open-letter-to-dr-alan-finkel.pdf
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Open Letter to Dr Alan Finkel


Dr Michael Crawford has written a response to the Finkel Report.

From the introduction:

“I have read your recent report with interest. Over about half a century I have observed that government reports are sometimes dishonest, ideological, obfuscatory, authoritarian, bureaucratised, wanting in courage, illogical and sometimes downright stupid.

“I have to salute you sir. Your recent report appears to have set new heights in this respect.

“Let me take some time to explain why your report so qualifies.

Dishonesty

“Under section 137.1(1) of the Criminal Code Act 1995, a person commits an offence if they give information to (i) a Commonwealth entity, or (ii) a person who is exercising powers or performing functions under, or in connection with, a law of the Commonwealth, AND the person (the source of the information) does so knowing that the information (i) is false or misleading; or (ii) omits any matter or thing without which the information is misleading.

“As will be seen below, your report appears to meet all of these conditions. Now I know that holding government officials to the same legal standards as apply to other citizens is considered, in official circles, to be unsporting. I also appreciate that the Prime Minister and sundry Ministers and other officials would find it enormously embarrassing were the author of your report to be taken before the courts. So I suspect the chance of you actually having to face charges is pretty slim.

“That does not alter the fact that your report appears in breach of section 137.1(1) of the Act in
a way that would lead to penalties for less privileged mortals.

“So as to the details…”

Read the full open letter: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/open-letter-to-dr-alan-finkel.pdf [PDF, 304 KB]


Dr Michael Crawford has a BSc and an MD in management from ANU and a BA and PhD in organisation theory and management from UNSW. He has undertaken research and teaching on the Executive Programs at the Australian Graduate School of Management.

He is co-author of the book Changing Power: Capabilities That Drive Corporate Renewal, based on a six year study of Australian and New Zealand corporate change.

After graduation Dr Crawford spent 11 years in the Australian public service and two years in the Australian Army including one year in Vietnam.

His consulting activities have covered major projects across a wide range of industries including food processing, mining, banking, IT, community services, healthcare and the public service.

He maintains an interest in the failings of government administration and policy.



Climate of Confusion


By Keith Orchison

By coincidence I have come across the new “Climate of the Nation” report from the strongly green-leaning Climate Institute on the same day I have been reading the latest Essential Report polling and just after looking at a pre-dawn snapshot of east coast market capacity on a pretty standard winter’s day.

Taking the latter first, at 6.30am today 97.6 per cent of the New South Wales load was being met by black coal generation as the State’s population was getting up and its substantial factory sector was gearing up. If you take NSW, Victoria and Queensland together – they represent 90 per cent of the east coast market – at this point 88.9 per cent of the three-State load was being met by brown and black coal generation with wind power providing 0.4 per cent and solar (naturally as the sun wasn’t yet up) 0.04 per cent.

(Eight hours later, I see, at 2.30pm, black coal generation is still bearing 89.7 per cent of NSW load and coal is accounting for almost 82 per cent of required capacity in the three largest States of the market – with hydro power providing 7.5 per cent and wind/solar 4.3 per cent.)

The question that comes to my mind when I look at data like this is what would be required to replace even half this coal power (let alone all of it) with mostly wind power and solar PVs? What would the total system cost be in a set-up where supply is assured and how would this translate in to retail bills?
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