By Lance Endersbee
23 October 2008

In the western nations there is a strong popular belief that mankind is causing global warming, and that natural climate change has ceased. We are told that man-made climate change will determine our future, with warmer climates, increased droughts, and rising sea levels. The media have become advocates in support of this view, and contrary debate is suppressed. Western governments now plan to “stop” climate change, an arrogant idea that has already caused enormous costs. In my view it is all a scientific scandal, a political farce, and a financial calamity. Meanwhile, certain other nations are profiting by the popular delusion in the west, notably Russia, and China.

The Russian Academy of Sciences rejects the UN/IPCC view that the combustion of carbon fuels causes global climate change. The Russian government is alert to the fact that carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, and regard emissions trading as financial game playing. Air pollution in cities, and global climate change, are scientifically separate matters.

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement to reduce carbon emissions. Russia was not an original signatory, for scientific reasons. Even though they regarded the IPCC conclusions as wrong, Russia finally signed the Protocol, for commercial purposes. It was evident to the Russians that western governments were being stampeded by false prophets, that the many of the actions proposed in western nations were scientific nonsense, and enormously harmful to their economies.

The financial opportunities for Russia were truly enormous. Because of the decline in Russian industry with the end of the cold war, carbon emissions had declined. This was a credit under the Kyoto Protocol.

The total value of Russian carbon credits was estimated at $40 to $60 billion. But if future negotiations to extend the Kyoto Protocols were to collapse, the carbon credits would be worth nothing. The Russian energy giant Gazprom moved quickly to bundle carbon credits with contracts for sale of natural gas and oil to Europe. Russia became the world’s largest exporter of oil and natural gas.

Russia is now very active in energy supply to Europe, helped by carbon trading. It is all quite business like and pragmatic. Europe now buys over 40% of its oil and gas from Russia, Germany 80%. The demand is rising rapidly, and almost all the increase is from Russia. Because of environmental concerns, Europe is not building any new coal or nuclear electricity generation, and using gas for electricity generation. Plans for new electricity generation in Britain also depend on Russian gas.

The future of the EU is now heavily dependent on Russia. Europe simply cannot cut itself off from Russian oil and gas. Europe is concerned about this, but helpless. It has all been a Russian geopolitical victory, made possible by the popular delusion in the west about climate change. The Russian incursion into Georgia, and their confident rejection of EU and US criticism, reveals the new geopolitical reality. Meanwhile, it seems that the Russian government has not moved to pass legislation to implement the Kyoto Protocol domestically.

Emeritus Professor Lance Endersbee AO FTSE is a civil engineer of long experience in water resources development with the Snowy Mountains Hydro-Electric Authority, the Hydro-Electric Commission of Tasmania and the United Nations in South-East Asia as an expert on dam design and hydro power development. In 1976 he was appointed Dean of the Faculty of Engineering at Monash University. In 1988-89 he was Pro-Vice Chancellor of the University. He is a former President of the Institution of Engineers, Australia.