RSS
Weather, Climate and Model Madness
“The assumptions are suspect, the relationships are far more complex than the models assume, and the scary forecasts are worthless.”
By Viv Forbes
Weather or climate? It pays to know the difference before we slaughter our economy on the climate alarm altar.
“Weather” describes atmospheric conditions at any location – temperature, humidity, clouds precipitation and winds. Every place has its own weather which depends on the time of day, the season, the latitude, local topography and the surface temperature of the nearest ocean.
Meteorologists need a good knowledge of weather records, atmospheric physics, geography, oceanography and solar cycles. Weather is mainly about wind – is it hot or cold, moist or dry, strong or weak? Surface atmospheric pressure gradients control wind strength, direction and temperature, and are valuable tools for short-term forecasting. Longer-term weather forecasters will find value in studying sun spots and El Nino episodes in the oceans. Few weather-men see any value in measuring or forecasting atmospheric CO2 to help forecast the weather.
“Climate” is defined as the thirty year average of weather at that spot. One week of bad weather is not evidence of climate change, no matter how often the ABC claims that. And adding the word “Climatology” to the name of the Bureau of Meteorology does not magically convert weather men into climatologists.
To determine climate trends requires centuries of reliable weather records. This is why geologists feature so prominently in determining past climates by mapping earth’s crust and collecting deep core samples in ice sheets, ocean and lake sediments and crustal rocks. (And it explains why climate alarmists alter past temperature records to create spurious warming trends.)
A canny and persistent mathematician/engineer Milutin Milankovitch was one of the first to suggest that changes in various solar cycle orbits and axial tilts cause changes in Earth’s climate. He spent years carefully calculating (by hand) how such changes caused changes in solar heat received by the Northern Hemisphere landmass. He speculated that this caused the advance and retreat of the great northern ice sheets. Since then dozens of geologists, palynologists, astronomers and engineers have confirmed the reality of the Milankovitch cycles.
‘Models” provide the comedy act in the climate circus. Using taxpayer funds and massive computers they build super-complex models designed to prove that global temperature will rise dangerously because of human production of carbon dioxide. These models supposedly prove that the world faces an unprecedented episode of imminent and irreversible global heating.
Climate models have three features.
Firstly, they assume that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is driven by human activity, and that CO2 drives global temperature. They calmly ignore the moderating effects of oceans, the unmeasured effects of volcanoes and the declining effects of extra CO2.
Secondly, they try to write formulae for the myriad of factors that drive the weather. Then these computers spit out their estimates for “average global temperature” – a bureaucratic invention – nothing lives or grows in “average global temperature”.
Thirdly, these models have only one valuable feature – they are known to be consistently wrong.
The assumptions are suspect, the relationships are far more complex than the models assume, and their scary forecasts are worthless. (see results below).
Source: https://republicans-science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-115-SY-WState-JChristy-20170329.pdf
Even if the modelling scaremongers were correct, we would expect a greener earth as warmer temperatures, more carbon dioxide plant food and more rainfall encourage all types of food production, grass growth and forest expansion.
However the Milankovitch solar cycles have not suddenly stopped. The warming top has passed and colder times are ahead. Oceans retain heat longer than land. Warm oceans and cold land can cause massive precipitation of snow, advancing ice sheets and a cold hungry world.
When that happens there will be no electricity from iced-up wind, solar and hydro generators and electric vehicles will soon run out of juice. There will be battles for ice-proof energy like nuclear, coal, oil and gas and a scramble for old diesel generators, trucks and cars.
Read More:
John and Mary Gribbin, 2015: “Ice Age – the Theory that Came in from the Cold”.
ReAnimus Press, Colorado
This book is a careful and readable documentation of the big factors that determine global climate. It records how the detailed calculations of the Serbian engineer/mathematician Milutin Milankovitch (although doubted for decades) were eventually vindicated by emerging climate core records. This research shows we are well past the peak of the current warming and the next ice age looms ahead. John Gribbin is an astro-physicist, Mary Gribbin is a science writer.
Testimony of John R. Christy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Alabama State Climatologist University of Alabama in Huntsville:
https://republicans-science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-115-SY-WState-JChristy-20170329.pdf
How they erased the Heat Wave of the 1930’s Dust Bowl:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCGOYy2HEQw
Viv Forbes has tertiary training in Geology, Physics, Chemistry and Meteorology and years of experience in building computer models.
The claims that carbon dioxide could cause global warming is based on a totally false – bizarre -model of the earth in the ABSENCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES. This “model” consists of a weightless black shell with no soil and no atmosphere. The average temperature on the sunny side of the earth is 288 K, which is the same as that of the whole earth as we know it – measured and easily calculated. However, from this ridiculous model defined by the IPCC, the night side temperature is 0 K (-273 C). In addition, a special temperature is defined in order to try to show that carbon dioxide is required to provide the known mean temperature of the earth. This is the quite artificial Effective Emission Temperature (EET) defined frequently in IPCC reports and which bears no relation to the mean temperature of a body and hence no association with its heat energy. The defined temperature is such that IFF it were UNIFORMLY distributed over the surface, radiation from that surface will be exactly equal to the power received from the sun. The trick then is to quite artificially stretch that “temperature” of 303 K on the sunny side alone, over the whole surface including the 0 K (-273 C) night side, when it is reduced to 255 K (-18 C). It is then claimed that this EET can become the earth’s mean temperature provided 33 K is added from the effect of carbon dioxide which also inreases water vapour which together give the known 288 K mentioned above – quite artificially.
In fact, an accurately constructed model with soil and air – just as it is but without greenhouse gases – provides a pair of materials with thermal capacities with which the temperature acquired (actually updated each day) during daylight. This thus acquires a temperature of a little more than 288 K, which represents the heat retained in these materials. At night, the air in particular very slowly cools through slow transfer of energy back to the cooing soil, since N2 and O2 are inert towards the infrared radiation at the temperature involved (300 K). The result is that the atmosphere in the night retains a temperature which is still very close to that from the top up of temperature during its turn in the daylight, with a mean value of a little less than 288 K.
The average temperature of the two hemispheres of air and hence of the whole globe is that 288 K as is known to be the case from measurements. Not a greenhouse gas in sight for this whole clear and accurate calculation.
The truth is then quite clear. Carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases, have absolutely no effect on global temperatures and increases in these gases will not cause any increase in the earth’s temperature. John Nicol MScPhD (Physics) MIP
The claims that carbon dioxide could cause global warming is based on a totally false – bizarre -model of the earth in the ABSENCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES. This “model” consists of a weightless black shell with no soil and no atmosphere. The average temperature on the sunny side of the earth is 288 K, which is the same as that of the whole earth as we know it – measured and easily calculated. However, from this ridiculous model defined by the IPCC, the night side temperature is 0 K (-273 C). In addition, a special temperature is defined in order to try to show that carbon dioxide is required to provide the known mean temperature of the earth. This is the quite artificial Effective Emission Temperature (EET) defined frequently in IPCC reports and which bears no relation to the mean temperature of a body and hence no association with its heat energy. The defined temperature is such that IFF it were UNIFORMLY distributed over the surface, radiation from that surface will be exactly equal to the power received from the sun. The trick then is to quite artificially stretch that “temperature” of 303 K on the sunny side alone, over the whole surface including the 0 K (-273 C) night side, when it is reduced to 255 K (-18 C). It is then claimed that this EET can become the earth’s mean temperature provided 33 K is added from the effect of carbon dioxide which also increases water vapour which together give the known 288 K mentioned above – quite artificially.
In fact, an accurately constructed model with soil and air – just as it is but without greenhouse gases – provides a pair of materials with thermal capacities with which the temperature acquired (actually updated each day) during daylight. This thus acquires a temperature of a little more than 288 K, which represents the heat retained in these materials. At night, the air in particular very slowly cools through slow transfer of energy back to the cooing soil, since N2 and O2 are inert towards the infrared radiation at the temperature involved (300 K). The result is that the atmosphere in the night retains a temperature which is still very close to that from the top up of temperature during its turn in the daylight, with a mean value of a little less than 288 K.
The average temperature of the two hemispheres of air and hence of the whole globe is that 288 K as is known to be the case from measurements. Not a greenhouse gas in sight for this whole clear and accurate calculation.
The truth is then quite clear. Carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases, have absolutely no effect on global temperatures and increases in these gases will not cause any increase in the earth’s temperature.
John Nicol MScPhD (Physics) MIP