Modelling Madness


Complex computer models are continually being used to generate incessant alarms about the future for our environment and resources – climate, weather, minerals, oil, food, water, pollution and the oceans.

Every year the computers get more expensive, and the models more complex, but their doomsday forecasts still fail.

Weather vs Climate

The weather at any spot is usually defined by max/min temperatures, humidity, precipitation and wind strength/direction. Weather varies hourly, daily, season-to-season and place-to- place. These weather measurements at any place can be averaged over various time periods.

Climate is defined as the average of thirty years of weather.


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Weather statistics can be averaged over larger areas, such as by region, state, continent or the globe. This is a mathematical abstraction, becoming less accurate and less meaningful as the time or area covered increases. A global average annual temperature which (after debatable adjustments) includes winter in the Antarctic and summer in the Sahara is irrelevant. No one lives in the global average temperature. Weather and climate have been so politicised that most commentaries are now merely propaganda.

In the Brave New World of global warming alarmists, a long frigid winter is “just weather”, but one stinking hot summer day is “clear evidence of dangerous man-made climate change”.

And despite an un-predicted 17 years of stable global temperature trends, their prophets still chant their doleful dirge: “Unless we have a carbon tax, extreme weather disasters are coming your way soon”.

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More, as well as:

  • Modelling Madness
  • Clive Palmer’s Climate Gift Horse
  • Aliens Cause Global Warming?
  • Budget Should Cut Climatism Costs
  • New Book from Ian Plimer: “Not for Greens”
  • Believe it or Not – Al Gore Grilled at Last

Read the full report: [PDF, 109KB]

Keywords: Weather, climate, models, forecasts, Clive Palmer, Budget, climate spending, Ian Plimer, Al Gore.

The Social Cost of Carbon: Garbage In, Garbage Out

Combined climate and econometric computer models produce any desired result.

Ronald Bailey | August 2, 2013

… “In an incisive new study, Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Robert Pindyck rips the social cost of carbon estimates derived from integrated assessment computer models to pieces. In his National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?,” Pindyck concludes that the models all “have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs such as the discount rate are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the social cost of carbon estimates that models produce.” Pindyck adds that the “models’ descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the social cost of carbon, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome.”…

Full article:

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