The Percival Effect
Correlations, Causes and Dis-proofs

Every morning just before dawn our rooster crows and soon afterwards the sun comes up. We have observed no exceptions over three months – clear evidence of perfect correlation. Therefore we have concluded that the crowing rooster causes the sun to rise.

My wife Flora (who believes that the Cooee birds bring the rain) said: “I knew that ages ago – Professor Percival told me.”

So I consulted Professor Percival, our neighbour. He is Professor Emeritus in the “Science in Society” Department at Top-Line University. He specialises in the effect of sound waves on atmospheric transmissivity. He says that some roosters produce sound waves of just the right frequency to affect the dawn visibility through the thick morning atmosphere. He has written pal-reviewed papers on the subject which has been named “The Percival Effect”. In all the hallowed halls, it is regarded as “settled science”.

Cartoon credit: http://stevehunterillustrations.com.au/political-cartoons/

However, we decided that our rooster was not doing his day job, so he ended up as roast dinner last night.

Flora was very concerned – “what if the sun does not appear at all tomorrow?” she wailed.

But the sun rose as normal.

Flora was relieved but a concerned Professor Percival went off to check his calculations “for feedback loops”. He is still checking.

One thing was proved conclusively in just one day – the rooster’s crowing does not make the sun appear. Something else causes the sun to rise. Our ninety-two correlations did not prove causation. But just one disproof was needed to kill the Percival Effect.

So it is with the Greenhouse Effect. For about 20 years now, carbon dioxide levels have risen steadily but global temperatures are trending level. Therefore CO2 does not control global temperature.

One disproof is all that is needed.

“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” – Albert Einstein

(Disclosure: Big Rooster has not funded any of this research.)

Read More:
“The claim that increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is causing “global warming” . . has no more scientific foundation than the bloodletting of past generations:”
http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2007/05/01/carbon-dioxide-levels-are-blessing-not-problem

Acknowledgement: I am indebted to the late Bert Kelly, MP, for introducing me to “Farmer Fred” many years ago. Bert was a Liberal MP from South Australia, who became famous for his regular media articles by “Modest Member”. Bert was one of the most sensible men to ever be elected to Parliament, and one of the founders of “The Dries” so naturally did not advance far in Parliament. Some of his history can be found here: http://bertkelly.org.au/
Here is the first Modest Member column, from 1969, where Bert introduces his main characters including Fred the farmer: http://economics.org.au/2011/04/first-modest-member-bert-kelly-afr-column/

Read more, as well as:

• Recycling Burps and Farts
• Keep Them Airborne, All the Time
• Restoring a Sense of Perspective
• The Hottest Afternoon EVAAH!!

Read the full report: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/farmer-fred.pdf [PDF, 269KB]

Keywords: Greenhouse Effect, correlations, causes, dis-proofs, sheep, emissions, targets, methane, travel rorts, temperature
data manipulation, Paris Conference.

Terry Cardwell has run coal fired power stations. He knows about the costs, efficiency and emissions from modern power stations. And he is frustrated at the lies, distortions and myths being spread about power generation. Being retired, he has no axe to grind, no master to serve and no agenda to push except concern for our future.

“We are all greenies in one form or another and care very much about our planet. The difference is most of us are realistic. Not in some idyllic utopia where everything can be made perfect by standing around holding a banner, chanting a slogan and being a general pain in the backside.”

For some plain truths from Terry on power and pollution see:http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/coal-power-realities.pdf [PDF. 29 KB]

Update: here is an interview by Michael Smith from Brisbane radio station 4BC with Terry Cardwell, 11 Jan 2010: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/terry-cardwell-4bc-20100111.mp3 [MP3, 993 KB; 8:28 min]

Twenty two organisations representing thousands of Australians all over the country have signed a letter to Prime Minister Gillard opposing the carbon tax. These diverse organisations, representing widely varied interests, are united in opposition to imposing a tax on carbon dioxide that will have no effect whatsoever on global climate, little effect on the production of carbon dioxide but a large effect on the cost of living and job prospects for Australians. This is merely a wealth redistribution scheme where most of the wealth will be consumed on compliance, regulation, red tape and subsidies and exemptions for the Climate Change Industry and their supporters.

See the letter here: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/coalition-to-stop-carbon-tax.pdf [PDF, 525 KB]

See also this leaflet: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/no-carbon-tax-rally-leaflet.pdf [PDF, 239 KB]

Viv Forbes
Chairman
The Carbon Sense Coalition

Predicting the weather — especially a decade or more in advance — is unbelievably challenging. What’s the track record of those most worried about global warming? Decades ago, what did prominent scientists think the environment would be like in 2010? FoxNews.com has compiled eight of the most egregiously mistaken predictions, and asked the predictors to reflect on what really happened.

Read Eight Botched Environmental Forecasts at FoxNews:

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/12/30/botched-environmental-forecasts/

The Queensland Government has announced plans to create a new category of restricted land called “Strategic Cropping Land” which bans all mining or development.

The Carbon Sense Coalition has lodged a submission opposing the proposal. See: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/coal-or-crops.pdf [PDF, 581 KB]

If Queensland’s politicians were really concerned about food security they would not have sterilised millions of acres of grazing land under scrub clearing bans, conservation zones, heritage areas, wild rivers, national parks and other anti-farming bans.

Nor would they have encouraged the diversion of cropping land from producing food for humans to producing ethanol for cars; or used false global warming dogma to justify covering food producing land with feral forests of carbon credit trees.

It seems that the Queensland government has a secret plan to destroy Queensland’s primary industries, all motivated by suicidal Green hostility to the production of carbon fuels and foods, mainly coal, cattle and sheep.

Queensland has always relied on both mining and farming. To undermine mining on the pretence of helping food production is false and destructive.

This is not about crops or food – it is just another chapter in the Green war on carbon fuels whose goal is to prevent development of new coal mines and power stations.

The hidden tragedy of this silly policy is that we will never know which protected paddock is underlain by a treasure house of coal or minerals.

With modern machinery and knowledge of soils and plants it would be very easy to replace the food lost in the tiny area of crop land likely to be disturbed by coal mining.

The choice is not “Coal or Crops”.

A sensible policy is “Coal AND Crops”.

More:

• The Rise of the Greenshirts
• More Green Aggression
• Don’t get Kloppered by the Carbon Tax
• Bob Carter and the ABC’s Science Show

Read the newsletter: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/coal-and-crops.pdf [PDF, 90 KB]

Nearly twelve months ago “Carbon Sense” predicted that the Ration-N-Tax Scheme was dead in the water, but there was real danger that it would be replaced by a carbon tax.

See: http://carbon-sense.com/2009/07/19/carbon-tax-saddled/

This looks more likely today. Those who seek total control over our lives and our assets will not rest, and a carbon tax will be supported by…

Read more: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/carbon-tax.pdf [PDF, 41 KB]

James Hansen, an outspoken world climate alarmist says: “Coal-fired power plants are factories of death”. The Australian Greens want a fast end to coal mining in Australia, and support a swift expansion of wind and solar power. As the Greens are part of the coalition which governs Australia, the electricity industry is now being coerced by carbon taxes and green subsidies and mandates to replace efficient and reliable coal-powered electricity with costly and unreliable wind and solar plants. All of this paranoia is driven by climatist claims that carbon dioxide causes environmental harm by triggering dangerous global warming. Let’s look at whether coal energy or green energy does more harm to the environment.

There is absolutely no proof that carbon dioxide causes any measurable changes to climate. In fact, the evidence indicates that changes in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are a result, not a cause, of variations in global temperatures.

Moreover, burning coal in clean modern power stations has definite benefits for the biosphere – it puts food and drink for all life back into the atmosphere. The major coal combustion products are – nitrogen plant food from the air (69%), carbon dioxide plant food from the coal (21%) and water vapour, the liquid for life, from the coal (7%). The other 3% comprises mainly inert atmospheric gases from the air and an ash residue of trace minerals from the coal. The green bogey-man, carbon dioxide, is the gas of life and a free gift from coal combustion to the biosphere. More carbon dioxide has proven benefits in making plants grow faster in good weather and helping them survive better in droughts or frosts. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is insurance for the biosphere no matter what climate change is in store for us.

Green energy, however, can affect local climate and does cause environmental damage…

More, as well as:

• The UN, Agenda 21 and the erosion of land ownership rights
• Killing the Earth to Save it
• The Last Word

Read the full report: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wind-solar-coal.pdf [PDF, 221 KB]

Cartoon Credit: Steve Hunter http://www.stevehunterillustrations.com.au/political-cartoons/

Keywords: Coal, wind, solar, gas, gases of life, wind farms affect the climate, turbine fires, bird kills, UN, Agenda 21.

“The individual sea level records obtained from the SEAFRAME study on 12 Pacific Islands have all been assessed by the anonymous authors of the official reports as indicating positive trends in sea level over all 12 Pacific Islands involved since the study began in 1993. This assessment studies individual records and finds that all of them show no change of sea level in almost all of the records following the 1998 cyclones. It is considered that cyclones and tsunamis not only induce false readings which should be ignored when calculating a trend, but they also disrupt the leveling of the equipment so that previous years’ figures should also not form part of a trend.”

See the full article South Pacific Sea Level: A Reassessment by Vincent R Gray:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/sea-levels-gray.pdf [PDF, 1.1 MB]

In addition, Cliff Ollier reports:

“Graphs of sea level for twelve locations in the southwest Pacific show stable sea level for about ten years over the region. The data are compared with results from elsewhere, all of which suggest that any rise of global sea level is negligible. The Darwin theory of coral formation, and subsidence ideas for guyots would suggest that we should see more land subsidence, and apparent sea level rise, than is actually occurring. Sea level studies have not been carried out for very long, but they can indicate major tectonic components such as isostatic rebound in Scandinavia. Attempts to manipulate the data by modelling to show alarming rates of sea level rise (associated with alleged global warming) are not supported by primary regional or global data. Even those places frequently said to be in grave danger of drowning, such as the Maldives, Tuvalu and Holland, appear to be safe.”

See the full article Sea Level in the Southwest Pacific is Stable by Cliff Ollier:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/sea-levels-ollier.pdf [PDF, 881 KB]

Here is a the very latest sea Level data from “The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project” produced by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology with technical support from the National Tidal centre and funded by the Australian Agency for International Development. There is no evidence of any dramatic increases in sea levels.

(From http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/spslcmp/reports.shtml Nov, 2009)

Earth has only three significant sources of energy.

First is geothermal energy from Earth’s molten core and decaying radioactive minerals in Earth’s crust. This energy moves continents, powers volcanoes and its heat migrates towards the crust, warming the lithosphere and the deep oceans. It can be harvested successfully in favourable locations, and radioactive minerals can be extracted to provide large amounts of reliable heat for power generation.

Second is energy stored in combustible hydrocarbon minerals such as coal, oil, gas, tar sands and oil shale. These all store solar and geothermal energy collected eons ago and they are the primary energy sources supporting the modern world and its large and growing populations.

Third are radiation and gravitational energies from the Sun and Moon which are captured by the biosphere as heat, winds, tides, rain, rivers and in biomass such as forests, crops and animals. These are the natural “Green” energies that support all processes of life and still support a peasant existence for some peoples.

Green zealots believe that we can and should run modern societies exclusively on “Green” energies, and they have embarked on a war on hydrocarbons. They need to be told that their green energy favourites are just stealing from the biosphere – they are not as green as they claim.
(more…)

A long-forgotten scientific paper on temperature trends in New Zealand may be the smoking gun on temperature manipulation worldwide.

Since Climategate first broke, we’ve seen scandal over temperature adjustments by NZ’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research, NIWA, which in turn prompted a fresh look at raw temperature data from Darwin and elsewhere.

Now, a study published in the NZ Journal of Science back in 1980 reveals weather stations at the heart of NIWA’s claims of massive warming were shown to be unreliable and untrustworthy by a senior Met Office climate scientist 30 years ago, long before global warming became a politically charged issue.

The story is published in tonight’s TGIF Edition [PDF, 3.9MB, or just the relevant first page: http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/tgif-20091218-p1.pdf PDF, 294 KB], and has international ramifications.

To follow the full story by Ian Wishart go to: http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2009/12/nz-study-may-hold-key-to-faulty-world-temp-data.html