The warm peaks of the last 100 years were 1934, 1998 and 2010.
But where do they rank in a longer term list of warm years?
Of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 1934/1998/2010. Thus, regardless of which year (1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.
The climate has been warming slowly since the Little Ice Age, but it has quite a ways to go yet before reaching the temperature levels that persisted for nearly all of the past 10,500 years.
Mr Steketee (Weekend Australian 8 Jan 2011) needs to tread carefully in the highly manipulated world of climate and weather statistics.
Quoting data from the UN World Meteorological Organisation is suspect because the WMO jointly created the IPCC, which is dedicated to proving that anthropogenic warming is happening regardless of evidence.
The British Met Office is in disarray for its conflicting and error-prone forecasts provided to the UK, while in New Zealand the national weather body abandoned their official temperature records because of manipulation of past data by the government agency. In Australia, the BOM is no different to many other data collection agencies around the world in selective manipulation of older raw data records downwards (i.e. cooler), thus making the overall trend appear warmer to the present. This effect is also achieved by closing of thousands of data stations around the world, most in the cooler regions, thus leading to a warming bias.
Recent high-quality ice core data from Greenland shows that of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 2010, with no relation to CO2, while the longest instrumental record in the world in central England shows that December 2010 was the second coldest December dating back to 1659. Australian raw data shows that we have warmed only 0.6oC since 1910, and Mr Steketee needs to look at the less alarmist bigger picture and to be better informed about the work of experts such as Professor Bob Carter.
Wind Power – it’s all about trying to extract energy from Free Air.
Wind turbines try to catch the kinetic energy in the moving cylinder of air that is sliced by the turbine blade. Because air is so light, and wind has a generally low speed (compared to a jet engine thrust, say) there is a limited amount of energy to be collected.
And turbines can only catch a limited amount of this energy – to collect it all would require the turbine to catch all of that air and bring it to a dead stop. Naturally this never occurs and wind leaves the turbine will significant speed and energy. For an ideal turbine in an ideal wind speed the power co-efficient may only be in the 30-40% range.
Conversion of the energy collected by the blade to electrical energy is achieved in an electric generator, where more energy is lost. The generator is designed for the optimal blade speed. If the wind blows harder than expected, the excess energy cannot be caught by the generator and electricity generation levels out, until at about 25 m/s wind speed, the turbine cuts out to prevent damage in high winds. A standard power factor is about 35%.
Unfortunately generators are designed to run at high speed but turbines turn at low speeds. Therefore they need huge gearboxes which develop massive forces for which no effective lubricant is available. At high winds, gearboxes may overheat and catch fire.
About 20 turbines catch fire and burn each year. The global total number of turbines appears to be around 68,000. These figures from the web provide a rough guide to quantifying the bushfire risk. Applying the global data to the 2,000 or so turbines installed in Australia we would expect a 60% probability of one turbine fire each year.
If there is a known risk of wind generator fire then the generators must be disabled well before conditions reach critical being a Grassland fire danger Index above 50 or a Forest Fire danger Index above 6.
In 2009 I was asked by a journalist for my thoughts on the importance of Earth Hour. Here is my response.
I abhor Earth Hour. Abundant, cheap electricity has been the greatest source of human liberation in the 20th century. Every material social advance in the 20th century depended on the proliferation of inexpensive and reliable electricity.
Giving women the freedom to work outside the home depended on the availability of electrical appliances that free up time from domestic chores. Getting children out of menial labour and into schools depended on the same thing, as well as the ability to provide safe indoor lighting for reading. (more…)
This year will see the climax of the Climate War in Australia. Once the new Senators take their seats Gillard and the Greens will try to legislate their carbon dioxide tax followed by the carbon rationing scheme.
We can expect no help from the big end of town – they are too busy designing exemptions or benefits for themselves. All stops will be pulled out with the government media, the research mercenaries, the climate change industry and paid spruikers like Garnaut and Flannery all firing broadsides.
Opposing them are a few independent scientists, a few sceptical journalists, a growing band of bloggists and thousands of concerned consumers and tax payers.
Politics is a numbers game, so we need help from every member and supporter. Please pass on these messages to friends and associates, write letters to the media, swamp the politicians with questions and opposition, swell the numbers at rallies and protests, ask awkward questions of politicians in public, and recruit new supporters.
The taxaholics will fail in the end, but the longer this scam continues the greater the cost and harm done to our economy, our cost of living and our environment.
No one can do everything, but everyone can do something.
Please play a part in this great battle of our times.
The New Zealand government is proposing to nominate a reduction target for emissions of certain natural gases produced by human activities.
With no mathematics, science, logic or economics to support their target, they propose to nominate that 2050 emissions will be just 50% of 1990 levels.
This submission looks at a few key aspects of this proposal and concludes that it is not feasible, not sustainable and not justified.
No warming for 13 years, so why are we still listening to the Alarmists.
Lower troposphere temperature from satellites, updated to January 2011.
Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature (thin line) since 1979 according to University of Alabama at Huntsville, USA. The thick line is the simple running 37 month average.
President Obama and a chorus of environmentalists, politicians, corporate executives and bureaucrats are perennially bullish on wind power as the bellwether of our “clean energy economy of the future.”
In reality, wind energy may well be the least sustainable and least eco-friendly of all electricity options. Its shortcomings are legion, but the biggest ones can be grouped into eight categories: land, raw materials, money, energy, health, environment, jobs, electricity cost and reliability.
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