B.O.M. Forecasting Failures

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology failed miserably to predict record breaking rainfall this spring. The B.O.M. forecast issued on 24th August 2010 read:

“The chance that the average spring maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature is above 60% over northern parts of Australia, as well as southeastern SA and all of Victoria and Tasmania. The national outlook for total rainfall over spring (September to November) is neutral for most of the country, with the odds favoring neither wetter nor drier conditions. The main exception to this is in southwest WA, where a wetter than normal spring is favoured. There is also a slight shift toward a wetter spring in northeastern NSW, along with a shift toward a drier spring in Tasmania and southern Victoria.”

I am well aware of the difference between weather and climate, but if the “experts” can’t predict correctly over such a short term, do you really have confidence in their long-term predictions?

John McLeish
Wodonga Australia


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