Rising Sea Levels – The Climate Debate


By Daniel Fitzhenry

The seas and oceans to the east of Australia forms the largest body of water on Earth. This broadly connected vast body of water presents a genuine sea level. The Sydney Fort Denison Recording Station provides stable, accurate and genuine mean sea level data. The following table shows mean sea levels at 10 year intervals and these levels are related to Chart Datum which is at the lowest spring tide level.

100 YEARS OF MEAN SEA LEVELS AT FORT DENISON, SYDNEY:
1914 – 1.11 metres
1924 – 0.98 metres
1934 – 0.98 metres
1944 – 0.97 metres
1954 – 1.00 metres
1964 – 1.09 metres
1974 – 1.09 metres
1984 – 1.02 metres
1994 – 1.04 metres
2004 – 1.08 metres
2014 – 1.12 metres
2019 – 1.05 metres

Accordingly, the mean sea level at Sydney in 2019 is 6 centimetres lower than the mean sea level at Sydney in 1914 when the Bureau Of Meteorology commenced recording Mean Sea Level.

High Sea Levels during Storm, Cyclone & Low Pressure Events.

Ill-informed commentators have asserted that sea levels may permanently rise by 1 to 2 metres in the next 100 years. 100 years of records on the largest water body on Earth indicates that this is incorrect.

There have always been short period storm and low pressure rises in sea levels. The highest recorded sea level at Sydney occurred during the 1974 low pressure storm. The sea level rose to 30 cm above high spring tide level for one day. During recorded history there has been no indication whatsoever of a 100 to 200 cm permanent rise in sea level.

There will always be short period storm, cyclone and low pressure rises in sea levels in close proximity to cyclone and storm centres. These storm centre rises in sea levels are not permanent.

Ocean swells and storm waves can exceed 16 metres during major storm surge events. It is these massive waves that have caused significant damage to coastal and island communities in the past. It is certain that huge storm event waves will occur in the future and will cause significant damage to the island and low lying communities. Coastline and flood zone protection is the sane answer to storm event damage.

It is polite and essential that the world population should avoid incorrect climate nonsense. We need to divert the alarmist energy to caring for the planet. Cease polluting the oceans. Prevent development of flood prone land and threatened coastal zones that have been, and will always be, subject to flooding.


Dan Fitzhenry.
Capt. Daniel Fitzhenry – CPHS1 Hydrographic Surveyor – Registered Surveyor – Dip. Environmental Studies (Macq.)
Steven Fitzhenry – B.Eng. (Civil) Sydney – MIE Aust. – Maritime Civil & Structural Engineer – Project Manager
Capt. Adam Fitzhenry – B. Eng. Honours (Civil) Syd, MBA AGSM – Maritime Civil & Structural Engineer – Oceanographer
Ellie Fitzhenry – B.Sc (Sydney) – Marine Biology & Ecology – Marine Science
Capt. Paul McGaw – ROV Operations Manager – Electrical & Mechanical Engineer
Tracey Hay – B.A (Macq) – Project Coordinator – IT, Statistics & Research Manager

PDF version: https://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/sydney-sea-levels.pdf [196 kB]

6 Comments

  1. Comment by David Driscoll on July 19, 2019 6:58 pm

    And confirmation on the incomplete data (which is the entire premise of Capt. Fitzhenry’s position) from BOM today

    Hi David
    Yes, the May 1914 monthly statistics were derived from ten consecutive hours at the end of the month. Our records begin at 1914-05-31T14:00:00Z.
    Sidenote: While we include the statistics in the data file, we typically only plot a monthly value if the data return during that month exceeds 50%.
    I hope that helps.
    Kind regards,
    James

    James Chittleborough | Assistant Manager, Tidal Unit

  2. Comment by Stuart McElroy on July 21, 2019 4:04 pm

    Interesting results and interpretations you have presented. Your selective data and resultant trend seems to conflict with the more complete data set accessible from BOM (http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLI.shtml) and PSMSL (https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/65.php).

    Would you like to suggest a reason for this?

    Interesting? What is really interesting is why Fitzhenry would put his name to such an ‘analysis’. Outliers in an averaged data set can easily hide a real trend. Look at the source raw data for yourself, not some butchered and selective version, and they show an increasing sea level trend, not Fitzhenry’s decreasing trend.

    And then to jump to some wild conclusion about the “world population should avoid incorrect climate nonsense”. What? His ‘analysis’ is like saying 1 + 1 = – 3 and therefore all maths theorems and proofs are nonsense.

    No. This man should stop peddling bad science and worse conclusions.

  3. Comment by ColA on August 16, 2019 1:02 pm

    Dan,
    Where did you get your records from? Does it conflict with NOAA?
    NOAA says that Level in Ft Denison has risen 80 mm in 126 years https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.shtml?stnid=680-140

  4. Comment by ColA on August 19, 2019 8:10 am

    I left a comment here about this post last week and now you say there have been no comments?? (I’ll take a copy this time!)

    You quote a whole lot of sea level data points but you failed to state where is the source of your data? You claim “mean sea level at Sydney in 2019 is 6 centimetres lower than the mean sea level at Sydney in 1914”

    NOAA Records do not agree, they clearly show 0.65 mm/yr rise that’s 67 mm HIGHER than 1914 and that’s 127 mm or a 5 inch contradiction, so I ask where is your proof, your data and IF your data is correct can you identify why the NOAA data is 5 127 mm wrong??

    Colin Andrews, Senior Mech. Engineer, climate realist

  5. Comment by Daniel Fitzhenry on August 20, 2019 2:16 pm

    Greetings Colin,

    Here is the link to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) records http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLD.shtml.

    We have tabled the BOM highest monthly MSL for 1914. Then our table shows the BOM’s highest recorded MSL every 10 years thereafter, and finally our table shows the highest BOM recorded MSL at March 2019.

    So at March 2019 when we prepared the article, the mean sea level at Sydney was 6cm lower than the highest recorded mean sea level for Sydney in 1914.

    The Fort Denison gauge is one of the most reliable and respected stations in the world.

    Thank you for your interest.

  6. Comment by ColA on August 26, 2019 8:36 am

    Hi Dan,
    Thank you for the link, I can now see where and how you have generated your table and while it is interesting I am not sure what it proves other than the trend in those particular readings are actually contrary to the overall tide record http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLI.shtml
    However, it seems I am not the only one who questioned your post.
    2 points;
    1) You should always link your source data in your post; Saves us asking for it,
    2) Make sure your data proves your hypothesis and other valid data does not disprove it! In this particular case your hypothesis “the mean sea level at Sydney in 2019 is 6 centimetres lower than the mean sea level at Sydney in 1914” is clearly FALSE!

    I may have been much more interested to read your hypothesis why your table conflicted with the actual BOM & NOAA trends.

    Regards,

    Colin Andrews

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