This paper presents a simple analysis to estimate the amount of CO2 emissions avoided by wind generation and the cost per tonne avoided as wind penetration increases from 0% to 20%. The carbon price implications are discussed.
For wind power to be viable in Australia the price for electricity would need to be about $120/MWh. The current average wholesale price of electricity is about $30/MWhi. So wind energy must be subsidised by about $90/MWh. If we have a carbon price of $25/MWh then the Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) need to reach $65/MWh to make wind viable. (That means the consumer must subsidise wind by $90/MWh, or three times the current wholesale price of electricity.)
The paper concludes that as wind energy penetration increases from 1% to 20% the CO2 avoidance cost increases from $100 to $2,500 per tonne of CO2 production avoided.
Wind energy is a high cost way to avoid CO2 emissions.
“Welcome to the neo-medieval world of Britain’s energy policy. It is a world in which Highland glens are buzzing with bulldozers damming streams for miniature hydro plants, in which the Dogger Bank is to be dotted with windmills at Brobdingnagian expense, in which Heathrow is to burn wood trucked in from Surrey, and Yorkshire wheat is being turned into motor fuel. We are going back to using the landscape to generate our energy. Bad news for the landscape.
“The industrial revolution, when Britain turned to coal for its energy, not only catapulted us into prosperity (because coal proved cheaper and more reliable than wood, wind, water and horse as a means of turning machines), but saved our landscape too. Forests grew back and rivers returned to their natural beds when their energy was no longer needed. Land that had once grown hay for millions of horses could grow food for human beings instead — or become parks and gardens.”
The Global Warming Policy Foundation has published (May 2011) a detailed report about the shale gas revolution and its likely implications for climate policy.
The report , written by Matt Ridley and with a foreword by Professor Freeman Dyson, finds that shale gas:
is not only abundant but relatively cheap and therefore promises to take market share from nuclear, coal and renewable energy and to replace oil in some transport and industrial uses, over coming decades.
will help to keep the price of nitrogen fertiliser low and hence keep food prices down, other things being equal.
is unlikely to be a major source of pollution or methane emissions, but in contrast promises to reduce pollution and accelerate the decarbonisation of the world economy.
Naturally, after causing a boom in demand for gas, and promoting it, greens are now trying to prevent exploration and exploitation of this massive new energy source. And just as naturally they are being supported by competitive energy sources threatened by this gas bonanza – French nuclear, Russian gas, the coal geo-sequestration crowd and the whole wind/solar lobby.
Some of these shales will also produce significant oil. Nick Grealy looks here at the coming impact of oil and gas from “Wet Shale”:
When a bulldozer blade they’re restraining,
It’s no time for the Greens to be feigning,
But the ultimate test and the proof of their zest
Is to cycle to work when it’s raining.
This year will see the climax of the Climate War in Australia. Once the new Senators take their seats Gillard and the Greens will try to legislate their carbon dioxide tax followed by the carbon rationing scheme.
We can expect no help from the big end of town – they are too busy designing exemptions or benefits for themselves. All stops will be pulled out with the government media, the research mercenaries, the climate change industry and paid spruikers like Garnaut and Flannery all firing broadsides.
Opposing them are a few independent scientists, a few sceptical journalists, a growing band of bloggists and thousands of concerned consumers and tax payers.
Politics is a numbers game, so we need help from every member and supporter. Please pass on these messages to friends and associates, write letters to the media, swamp the politicians with questions and opposition, swell the numbers at rallies and protests, ask awkward questions of politicians in public, and recruit new supporters.
The taxaholics will fail in the end, but the longer this scam continues the greater the cost and harm done to our economy, our cost of living and our environment.
No one can do everything, but everyone can do something.
Please play a part in this great battle of our times.
Seek a sustainable future! Wind, solar and biofuels will ensure an eco-friendly, climate-protecting, planet-saving, sustainable inheritance for our children. Or so we are told by activists and politicians intent on enacting new renewable energy standards, mandates and subsidies during a lame duck session.
It may be useful to address some basic issues, before going further down the road to Renewable Utopia. (more…)
The story of how a combination of green missionaries and vested interests have distorted and crippled the Australian electricity industry.
Evans and Quirk conclude:
“By 2020 annual electricity consumption in eastern Australia is estimated from NEMMCO data to be 347 Twh. If renewables are to provide 20 per cent, and no new hydro is to be permitted, electricity production from wind farms (or other renewable sources) must provide 53 TWh. Ignoring for the moment the insuperable problem of unpredictability, and assuming a Load Factor of 25 per cent, this will require a total of 27,000 MW of windmill capacity. Every bit of coastline, every mountain ridge, and much else that can be secured for windmills will have to be pressed into service to meet this target.
“The capital cost of wind power is considered to be $2000 per kW, and so an extra 26,000 MW will cost $52 billion. And back-up will be required. So in addition to new coal plant required to provide an additional 60 TWh, back-up generation of at least 23,400 MW will be required. All of this will have to be paid for by the electricity consumer. These numbers could not appear in any Commonwealth budget; no government could justify that sort of expenditure.
“On top of all this we have system stability problems created by widely dispersed power sources, spread over tens of thousands of square kilometres; whose output can vary dramatically as the wind gusts and dies down; that are connected to the main grid by long, weak transmission lines—a system operator’s nightmare. Such a transmission network, weak and unreliable as it will be, will cost at least $30 billion.”
The Carbon Sense Coalition has called for an end to all subsidies, mandated markets and sweetheart pricing for solar and wind energy.
The Chairman of “Carbon Sense”, Mr Viv Forbes, said that current energy policies were harming the existing power industry and robbing taxpayers and electricity consumers.
Forbes continued: “It’s time to end the mollycoddling of wind and solar energy toys before this stupidity does irreversible damage to Australia’s electricity supply and costs.
“The mindless green dream of producing serious base load power from whimsical breezes and intermittent sunbeams has caused a halt to new low-cost coal power, a boom in expensive gas power, a national debate about nuclear power and has had no effect at all on global climate.”
More:
The Critical Problem for Wind & Solar – Low Energy Density
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