Models and Climate Forecasts

“In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

– IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR; 2001), Section 142.2.2, page 774

Carbon Tax Forecasts

Official Government Forecast, 2010: “There will be no Carbon Tax”.

“Carbon Sense” Forecast , 2009: “Carbon Tax – Saddled and Ready”. See: [PDF, 17KB]

Forecasting Weather and Climate using Computer Models of the Atmosphere

“The atmosphere is very complex. Our models are having trouble doing any forecasts beyond about 7 days.”

Gordon Banks, Senior Forecaster, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, on ABC Radio, 4.05 am 4th Jan 2011

“Give me a faster computer and I will give you the wrong result sooner”.

Malcolm G. Ross
Annandale • VA • USA

Weather Forecasting

Here is the most reliable weather station in the world (Serpent River, Ontario). Beats all the computerised climate models.


Flannery Forecasts Perpetual Drought

“Over the past 50 years southern Australia has lost about 20 per cent of its rainfall, and one cause is almost certainly global warming. Similar losses have been experienced in eastern Australia, and although the science is less certain it is probable that global warming is behind these losses too. But by far the most dangerous trend is the decline in the flow of Australian rivers: it has fallen by around 70 per cent in recent decades, so dams no longer fill even when it does rain. Growing evidence suggests that hotter soils, caused directly by global warming, have increased evaporation and transpiration and that the change is permanent. I believe the first thing Australians need to do is to stop worrying about ‘the drought’ – which is transient – and start talking about the new climate”.

Tim Flannery

New Scientist, 16 June 2007 Print Edition.
Editorial: Australia – not such a lucky country.
Source: CFACT, 29 Jan 2011.

Was 2010 the Warmest year Ever?

The warm peaks of the last 100 years were 1934, 1998 and 2010.

But where do they rank in a longer term list of warm years?

Of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 1934/1998/2010. Thus, regardless of which year (1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.

The climate has been warming slowly since the Little Ice Age, but it has quite a ways to go yet before reaching the temperature levels that persisted for nearly all of the past 10,500 years.

It’s really much to do about nothing.

For a good summary of temperature trends see:

B.O.M. Forecasting Failures

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology failed miserably to predict record breaking rainfall this spring. The B.O.M. forecast issued on 24th August 2010 read:

“The chance that the average spring maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature is above 60% over northern parts of Australia, as well as southeastern SA and all of Victoria and Tasmania. The national outlook for total rainfall over spring (September to November) is neutral for most of the country, with the odds favoring neither wetter nor drier conditions. The main exception to this is in southwest WA, where a wetter than normal spring is favoured. There is also a slight shift toward a wetter spring in northeastern NSW, along with a shift toward a drier spring in Tasmania and southern Victoria.”

I am well aware of the difference between weather and climate, but if the “experts” can’t predict correctly over such a short term, do you really have confidence in their long-term predictions?

John McLeish
Wodonga Australia


Forecasting Failures – Chicken Little Wrong Again

Predicting the weather — especially a decade or more in advance — is unbelievably challenging. What’s the track record of those most worried about global warming? Decades ago, what did prominent scientists think the environment would be like in 2010? has compiled eight of the most egregiously mistaken predictions, and asked the predictors to reflect on what really happened.

Read Eight Botched Environmental Forecasts at FoxNews:

Famous Forecasts: The End of Snow

The Independent, 20 March 2000:

Snow is starting to disappear from our lives. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.


The Daily Telegraph, 29 November 2010:

Britain is shivering in record-breaking cold weather for November despite data from the Met Office that we could be in for an unusually dry and mild winter.

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